Off The Record With Paul Hodes

Matt, Paul, and Alicia discuss Donald Trump's unhinged rant on Truth Social plus the recent Arlington National Cemetery incident, which has pushed Trump to new levels of insanity. The panel explores what triggered Trump's meltdown: Jack Smith's refiled case against him. They also question why, despite Trump's outrageous behavior, the race remains a 50/50 toss-up. Plus, the 10-year anniversary of 'Tan Suit Gate' involving former President Barack Obama. 00:00 Introduction: Trump's Unhinged Rant 01:07 Analyzing Trump's Truth Social Meltdown 03:58 The Normalization of Trump's Behavior 06:09 Misogyny and Disrespect Towards Women 09:11 Arlington National Cemetery Incident 18:06 Jack Smith's Indictment and Trump's Reaction 23:39 Why is This Still a 50-50 Race? 33:04 Tansuitgate Anniversary

***Don't forget to check out our mini-series on the hidden psychology of political campaigns on ⁠YouTube⁠ or ⁠Spotify⁠.*** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDbNEHJ_pV4 RFK Jr.'s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race and his subsequent endorsement of Donald Trump would, until very recently, have been viewed as a watershed. But when it finally went down late last week, it barely made waves. Will it matter? 02:59 RFK Jr.'s Support Base and Its Implications 09:42 Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy 17:21 Trump's Response and Campaign Strategy 20:50 Psychological Techniques in Campaigns 24:31 Trump's Campaign Challenges 29:38 Potential October Surprise

Episode One of The War to Win Minds: The Hidden Psychology of Political Persuasion. A limited series where PhD psychologist Lauren Goldstein and veteran campaign manager Matt Robison break down political ads to show the science behind how political campaigns fight and win the battle for our brains. In this episode: how one brilliant Kamala Harris ad explains the two pathways into our minds, and which one really works to win elections. *** WATCH ON YOUTUBE at https://youtu.be/ZDbNEHJ_pV4?si=9f4lHui08g0WG3je *** 00:00 Introduction: The Battle for Minds 1:03 Central vs. Peripheral Routes 4:26 The Central Route Explained 9:25 The Peripheral Route Explained 11:56 Analyzing Effective Political Ads 14:45 Kamala Harris's Ad Breakdown 21:52 Polling Insights and Strategy 25:00 Key Takeaways and Conclusion

What do Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party need to do in the final stretch of the campaign to secure a win against Donald Trump? Paul, Matt, and Alicia take stock of where we are and where we need to get to. They also break down Harris' acceptance speech and the DNC's overall performance, the importance of upcoming debates, and the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. 00:55 Analyzing Kamala Harris's Acceptance Speech 01:35 Critique of the Democratic Convention 04:54 Discussion on Political Reporting and Media 13:31 Upcoming Mini-Series 17:38 Current State of the Campaign 23:25 Debate Expectations and Strategies 27:03 The Role of Swing States 32:05 Kamala Harris's Debate Tactics 37:07 Election Polls and Predictions 40:45 The Grammar Debate

Was last night's set of Democratic Convention speeches a game changer for Dems? Paul, Alicia and Matt think it quite possibly was, and got into such a heated discussion about it over text that they decided to take it right to the podcast. We cover why Doug Emhoff hit a grand slam, what Michelle did that worked so well, and why Barack Obama's speech marked a critical shift in Kamala's strategy. 00:57 Reactions to Obama's Speech 04:11 Alicia's Take on Dougie's Speech 05:23 Obama's Subtle Jabs and Nitpicks 08:54 Generational Differences and Grace 15:35 Obama's Inflection Point in the Campaign 19:51 Debating Obama's Legacy 30:05 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

Today, an unvarnished and unbiased deep dive into the numbers and the scenarios for the 2024 election with former executive director of the Republican Party in Florida, Jamie Miller. We ask what are the best strategies and likeliest potential outcomes for the presidential race as well as down-ballot races? And we try to step outside either party's partisan perspective to see where the opportunities and pitfalls are. 00:00 Introduction: Beyond Politics with Matt Robinson 00:02 Stepping Outside the Echo Chamber 00:34 Interview with Jamie Miller: A Reasonable Perspective 01:15 Convention Insights: Kamala Harris and the Final Stretch 01:44 Historical Speeches and Convention Experiences 02:28 Echo Chamber vs. TV Land: Communication Differences 02:54 Analyzing the Republican Convention 05:20 Paths to Victory: Harris vs. Trump 05:47 Polling Momentum and Strategic Predictions 08:22 Impact of Down-Ballot Races 18:41 Budgeting and Campaign Strategies 19:41 The Importance of Key States 33:27 Debate Impact and State

With polling data showing Kamala Harris bursting into the lead ahead of Donald Trump, what do they need to do at the upcoming conversation to keep the momentum going and propel them into November. Also, why are voters suddenly rating Harris ahead of Trump on the economy? Also, the controversy surrounding Olympic gymnast Jordan Childs and the governing body's decision to take away her medal. 01:43 Polling and Kamala's Momentum 05:27 Communication Tips for Dems 08:58 Balancing Policy and Values 13:50 Convention Entertainment 18:53 Warming Up the Crowd for Barack 21:27 Economic Plans and Voter Sentiments 23:49 Poll Results and Voter Trust 25:09 Emotional Resonance in Politics 33:46 Olympic Gymnastics Controversy

Alicia Prestonhas reached a stunning conclusion: Trump's chances for 2024 are over, and Republicans' only hope is for every Senate, Congress, and gubernatorial candidate to fend for themselves. We talk about Trump’s blunders, the rise of Kamala Harris in the polls, and the weird attack on Tim Walz’s military record. 01:05 Trump's Mar-a-Lago Press Conference 02:41 Alicia's Bold Prediction 06:22 Republican Party's Dilemma 20:22 Heroism and Military Service 21:55 Swift Boating and Political Strategies 28:14 Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy 34:31 Trump's Campaign Struggles 39:10 Dad Jokes

Matt was getting interviewed live on the radio when the news broke that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was the surprise VP pick for the dems. Here's the analysis getting worked out in real time. And here is the Newsweek article that Matt wrote right after describing what we can read between the lines about this pick, and why it might be sneaky good news for Democrats. https://www.newsweek.com/3-things-we-can-read-tim-walz-vice-presidential-pick-opinion-1935427 00:42 Breaking News: Tim Walz as VP Nominee 01:40 Live Radio Analysis with Howard Monroe 04:19 The Case for and Against Tim Walz 05:58 Polling and Electoral Strategy 09:03 Tim Walz's Political Strengths 15:35 Republican Reactions and Attack Lines 20:22 Debate Strategy: Should Harris Debate Trump? 22:19 Final Thoughts and Conclusion

With Kamala-mentum becoming very real, we dive into Donald Trump's pretty insane strategy to put out that fire with gasoline by questioning whether Kamala Harris is actually Black. Is there any chance it could help him? Also, a massive deal that gained the release of 16 unjustly imprisoned people in Russia. And the "weird" wave sweeps America. 00:00 Introduction and Trump's Controversial Strategy 00:32 Breaking News: Massive Prisoner Release 02:33 Diplomatic Implications and Political Reactions 12:26 Kamala Harris's Rising Momentum 15:13 Polling Trends and Public Perception 20:33 Trump's Strategy and Media Reactions 34:49 The Weird Factor in Politics 39:04 Concluding Thoughts

Dan Perry, former Middle East editor for the Associated Press, unpacks the complex, unfolding situation surrounding the assassination of both Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, including the potential "good news" scenario that this could create an off-ramp to end the war and bring Israeli hostages home, or the possibility that things could escalate. Perry writes "Ask Questions Later", a substack with unparalleled analysis of the Middle East and world affairs. Subscribe here: https://danperry.substack.com/ 02:25 Good News Scenario in the Middle East 06:07 Bad News Scenario and Potential Escalations 09:51 Turkey's Role and NATO Concerns 13:05 US Domestic Politics and Global Implications 18:19 Netanyahu's Political Future 22:53 Conclusion

We tend to think about American politics as being driven by the fight between the two major parties. But what if the conventional view of political polarization in America is missing the true divide: between elites and the working class. Batya Ungar-Sargon, Opinion Editor at Newsweek, discusses insights from her book 'Second Class,' in which she interviews hundreds of Americans and posits that elites on both sides of the political spectrum have betrayed America's working men and women. 03:31 The Real Disconnect in America 04:21 Stories from the Working Class 10:04 The Impact of Immigration and Healthcare on the Working Class 20:02 Political Opinions and Voting Decisions 30:54 The Elites' Betrayal of Working Americans

Is Kamala Harris in an even better position than initial indications would seem to suggest, and can the Dem's big surge this week get even better? Also, were Joe Biden's limitations as a communicator really a legit demerit on how effectively he could do the job as president? Who should get the Dem VP nod? And did JD Vance say the most insulting and politically destructive thing in American vice-presidential history? 01:49 Inside Reactions and Polling Insights 04:23 Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy 19:15 The Role of Communication in Politics 31:25 Social Media's Impact on Society 34:37 Kamala Harris and Political Communication 37:08 VP Picks and Political Strategy 40:26 J.D. Vance's Controversial Remarks

The surging beginning of Kamala Harris' presidential campaign is exactly what anxious Democrats were hoping for. Matt joins radio legend Howard Monroe to discuss all the new angles: the fundraising, the maneuvering, the messaging, and the polling. 03:00 Kamala Harris's Campaign Momentum 07:28 Debate on Biden's Resignation 17:35 Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump Winning Messages 22:39 Polling and Public Perception 26:38 Republican Strategies Against Harris

The Pivot to Kamala: Trump, Biden, and the Divide in America. Matt is joined by Batya Ungar-Sargon, Opinion Editor at Newsweek, to discuss the sudden ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's influence, and whether Joe Biden should resign. 02:18 Boiling it All Down: Has This Been a Great Week? 07:18 Biden's Withdrawal and Kamala Harris 12:01 Economic Models and the American Dream 17:01 GOP vs. Democratic Party Elites 25:25 Conclusion and Next Episode

President Joe Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 presidential race. He's already a hero who saved America once. Now, will his selfless move increased the Democratic Party's chances of beating Donald Trump? And, Matt just wrote in Newsweek on SATURDAY that Biden should also resign in order to help Kamala Harris defeat Trump. Is the case now even stronger? 00:00 Breaking News: Biden Withdraws from 2024 Race 01:07 Analyzing Biden's Debate Performance and Media Influence 02:25 The Impact of Biden's Withdrawal on the Democratic Party 05:28 Reflecting on Joe Biden's Presidency 10:17 Kamala Harris: A lock as the Next Democratic Nominee? 12:35 Strategizing for the 2024 Election 21:11 Potential Vice Presidential Picks 23:17 Closing Remarks and Subscriptions

We tried to boil down one of the most eventual weeks in American political history into two questions: Is there really a new Trump following the assassination attempt, and if this is the end of the political road for Joe Biden as looks increasingly likely, what will happen next for the Democrats? 00:46 Assassination Attempt and Trump's New Promise 01:51 Analyzing Trump's Convention Speech 04:27 Trump's Economic Ideas and Their Impact 10:23 Biden's Potential Withdrawal and Democratic Party Reactions 18:41 Goodfellas vs. Godfather 24:59 Strategic Realities for Democrats 26:44 Kamala Harris as a Candidate 29:13 Hypothetical Scenarios for Biden 31:54 IS Alicia Really in Matt's Basement?

Voters consistently say the economic is the most important issue to them. Which is why it's baffling that there's been so little attention on Donald Trump's economic ideas, which would be an unspeakable disaster for the American economy, and especially for the middle class. Brian Riedl, a conservative economist from the Manhattan Institute breaks down why proposals like replacing the income tax with a massive tariff are mathematically and economically terrible. We also get into Trump's broader policy ideas, and if you want to read more about Project 2025 and what Trump wants to actually do if he regains power, check out Matt's piece in Newsweek. 00:00 Introduction: The Overlooked Economic Disaster 01:10 Biden's Clear Agenda vs. Trump's Hidden Plans 01:44 Trump's Radical Economic Proposals 02:44 Expert Analysis: The Flaws in Trump's Tariff Plan 05:10 The Impact on Low-Income Families and Retaliation Risks 09:27 The Political Reality Behind Trump's Proposals 20:34 The Ne

Is the turmoil surrounding Joe Biden's potential dropout from the presidential race wrapping up, or ramping up? Is it even possible that the media is simply fueling this narrative for drama and traffic, obscuring where their focus should be on Donald Trump's controversial plans for America? Check out Matt's newest Newsweek article on the exceedingly dangerous Trump plan for a second term. 02:47 The Media's Influence on Public Perception 04:39 Internal Democratic Party Tensions 07:00 Public Sentiment and Polls 10:51 Strategic Dilemmas for Democrats 18:45 Media Criticism and Public Backlash 21:17 Media Bias and Math 30:06 Project 2025: A Blueprint for Trump's Second Term 35:38 Pornography and the RNC

It's one of the biggest questions looming over American politics: what will the centrists do? There are as many as 71 million self-identified centrists in America - people who don't feel entirely comfortable with either major political party, and largely agree on most issues - and these are the people who are probably going to decide which of two very different paths America follows. So why can't either party nail them down? And which way will they go? Former Republican Congressman and centrist Scott Klug, host of the podcast Lost in the Middle joins to explain. ***Don't forget to leave us a rating and review!*** ***Subscribe to Lost in the Middle! https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lost-in-the-middle-americas-political-orphans/id1706739467*** 02:21 Centrists and the Trump-Biden Debate 09:47 How the Middle Got Lost 24:16 The Rise of Independents and Future of Politics 32:43 Ticket Splitting and Political Trends 37:42 Democratic Party Dynamics 48:30 Favorite Funniest Moments in Congress