Off The Record With Paul Hodes

Republicans are abandoning Trump over the Iran war and gas prices — six weeks before the 2026 midterms, is it too late? Democrat Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down GOP candidates scrubbing Trump from their websites and breaking with him on the Iran war, Trump's UN speech, Xi Jinping's state visit, the Trump TV flop, the AI arms race, and why the 2026 midterm map is collapsing for Republicans.Get Matt's weekly analysis at Worth Knowing with Matt Robison: https://worthknowing.substack.comSubscribe free: https://worthknowing.substack.com/subscribeIn this episode:- Salazar, Rogers and Donalds put distance between themselves and Trump — and why a break this late is too little, too late (lessons from the 2010 ACA vote)- Trump's UN speech: Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the Greenland deal- Xi Jinping's state visit, affordability, and the U.S.-China AI race- Trump TV launches, and a Trump-appointed judge restores press access- The AI Force, "super intelligence," and

Bill Scher of the Washington Monthly joins Matt Robison to argue about the three stories driving the 2026 midterms: what campaign spending actually reveals about the battlefield, whether the Supreme Court is breaking the republic or quietly saving it, and what happens when the White House bans three news organizations and the networks respond by turning the cameras off. Republicans have booked more than $110 million in ads since August 1 in House districts Trump won by double digits — while cutting money out of Senate races they trail by eight points. Bill reads that as a party bracing for a blue wave. Matt argues most published spending numbers are misleading until you know whether the money is candidate money or super PAC money, because candidate dollars buy roughly three times the airtime.Bill Scher, “If You Don't Like Polls, Follow the Money” — https://washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/22/if-you-dont-like-polls-follow-the-money/Bill Scher, “The Supreme Court Still Works as the Founders Intended” — https:/

Eight weeks out from the midterms, Republican strategist Matt Wylie says his own party is in serious trouble. The Fed defied Trump, the courts blocked him twice, and House Republicans went home for six weeks rather than take a vote. And all the polling is getting worse for the GOP.This week on Political Rehab, our mashup of PTI and The Daily Show: Kevin Warsh — Trump’s handpicked Fed chair — led a unanimous quarter-point rate hike, the first increase in three years, after Trump spent a year demanding cuts. A federal judge blocked Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center and the Supreme Court blocked his mail-in voting restrictions for November. Speaker Mike Johnson canceled votes and sent the House home ahead of a privileged resolution to impeach Pete Hegseth. The AI safety fight exploded and then died. Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline and gas prices jumped.Plus Battlefield: why Republicans are suddenly spending $72 million in Texas, what Ashley Hinson’s bipartisanship ad tells you about Iowa, and th

Can anyone actually stop AI right now? This week: a viral resignation warning AI "could kill us all by the end of the decade," a rogue AI agent cyberattack, Dario Amodei calling on the industry to slow down, and the President of the United States calling the whole thing a "hoax."I sat down with Bruce Mehlman — Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Technology Policy under George W. Bush, and author of the Age of Disruption newsletter — and returning guest Katie Harbath, former Public Policy Director at Facebook and author of the upcoming book Disrupting Politics: A Front Row Seat to the Collision of Technology and Democracy (out October 6), to ask whether there's any real path to government action here, or whether this is just the next round of an arms race neither party can win.We cover the 10-day timeline that got us here, whether the data-center backlash is really a stand-in for deeper AI anxiety, how AI has scrambled traditional party lines, what companies can do on their own versus w

A Republican strategist just called his own party's midterm convention "the worst plan I have ever seen in the history of politics." Then Trump promised every American $5,000 — but only if Republicans keep the House and Senate.Democratic strategist Matt Robison and Republican political consultant Matt Wylie break down the GOP's first-ever midterm convention, Trump's $5,000 "dividend" offer, the AI safety warning that has both parties in Congress suddenly paying attention, the Canada trade war turning into an economic divorce, and the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Plus the Battlefield: a $44 million ad buy in Georgia, Republicans losing Hispanic voters in Texas by 23 points, the Supreme Court knocking down Missouri's gerrymander, and what $5.85 diesel is doing to rural House races.CHAPTERS0:00 Cold open0:45 This week's rundown1:00 The GOP midterm convention2:00 Wylie: "the worst plan I have ever seen"4:00 Trump's $5,000 check offer5:00 Why this is a quid pro qu

Trump is trying to break vote-by-mail before the 2026 midterms — and it isn't about stopping Democrats from voting.Study after study shows mail ballots don't favor either party, and the professionals around Trump know it. So what are the executive order, the USPS rule, the DOJ voter-file lawsuits, and the DHS "citizenship lists" actually for? The answer isn't November 3. It's January 3.Matt Robison is joined by Cliff Schecter of Blue Amp Media — Biden 2020 ad writer, author of the book on John McCain — for the full picture of what's coming, and what actually stops it.In this episode:- The "rogue clerk" scenario: what they may try on January 3, 2027, and why it's a sequel to the Mike Pence pressure campaign- Why the only real defense is margin — "too big to rig"- An anti-Trump Republican consultant's theory that Trump is trying to LOSE- What Hunter Biden told Cliff about his last name, Jake Tapper, and a UFC challenge to Tapper and Don Jr.- Cliff's

A Republican strategist just put a clock on the Secretary of Defense.This week Army Secretary Dan Driscoll — JD Vance's closest ally in the administration, the man Trump sent to Kyiv to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war — resigned after months of losing fights with Pete Hegseth over Hegseth firing Army generals. Republican consultant Matt Wylie's read: "I don't even think he makes it out of the next two months."Then it gets stranger. Trump calls data centers the "Golden Goose" while every Republican on a ballot runs the other way. The Pentagon takes a 35% stake in Venezuelan oil through an office whose own spokesman says it has no legal authority to take equity stakes — which leads Wylie to call Trump "America's first socialist president." A Postal Service whistleblower says the new federal ballot system can throw out an entire batch. And an AI company shows Congress a $500-a-month surveillance tool that builds an instant dossier on any American.Plus: The Battle

Trump promised the Reflecting Pool would be fixed in two weeks for $2 million. It took months, cost $14.7 million on a no-bid contract to a company that lines highway culverts, turned Kermit-green, and ended with a 67-year-old Olympic canoeist arrested for touching the water.Matt Robison is joined by Shane Almgren — writer of The Trumpland Diary and a former Donald Trump employee who worked the pool at Mar-a-Lago — to walk through the full, largely untold story of the Reflecting Pool fiasco, and then to make a bigger argument: this isn't chaos, and it isn't madness. It's a pattern.Every Trump disaster runs the same five stages: (1) the grandiose promise, (2) the skipped due diligence, (3) the fast failure, (4) the refinance — doubling down with new lies to cover the old ones, and (5) reality intrudes, and somebody else pays the bill. Never him.Which leads to the line at the center of this conversation, and of the joint article Matt and Shane published the next day: he's not crazy. He's bee

When President Donald Trump signed an executive order yesterday to “immediately” change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” it seemed like a parody, like he was telling Andy Borowitz “hold my beer…and charred steak”But no, it was real, and it begs the question: why is he making such an empty, impotent gesture, practically shouting that America is losing a trade war that he started and escalated for no reason?Why, for that matter did he hit Canada with 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods this past weekend—about 550 product lines, including dairy, beer and cider, cement, cosmetics, electronics, furniture, plywood, paint, hockey sticks and skates. Why then add threats of tariffs on Canadian autos, auto parts and steel?Why, Republicans had to wonder, pick this fight when we are 10 weeks away from swing Senate races in border states? You know who does lots of auto business with Canada? Michigan. You know who does lots of other business with Canada? Border states Maine, Alaska and Ohio (it’

Trump’s election power grab just got a boost from the Supreme Court. But can Democrats hold together long enough to stop him?The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to move forward, for now, with its effort to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the 2026 midterms. What does the ruling actually mean for voters — and is the bigger danger the immediate restriction of voting rights, or the chaos and distrust it could create around the election?I’m joined by Michaeleen Crowell, former Chief of Staff to Bernie Sanders, former legislative director for John Lewis, and a longtime voting-rights advocate, for a wide-ranging conversation about the stakes for American democracy.We dig into:What the Supreme Court's mail-voting ruling actually does — and doesn't doWhy the Trump administration's effort could create confusion and post-election chaosWhether the Supreme Court has become too powerful — and how Democrats could rein it inWhy Congress needs to reclaim its constitutional roleThe growing tensi

A joke about Trump's closest aide broke MAGA world this week — Senator Jon Ossoff mentioned executive assistant Natalie Harp by name, and Google searches for her spiked 5,000% overnight. Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie dig into why the reaction was so outsized, and what it reveals about who actually shapes Trump's view of reality. Plus: Disney and ABC sue the FCC and fight back against the Trump administration, a morale crisis aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, another Democratic Socialist upset in Trump's home state of Florida, and this week's Battlefield midterm scorecard — a rare bright spot for Republicans with a bigger trapdoor ahead.Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down the week in politics — where PTI meets The Daily Show. New episodes every week.

The DSA platform wants to abolish the military, the Supreme Court, and the presidency — and almost no one has actually read it. Washington Monthly politics editor Bill Scher joins Matt Robison to break down the document tearing the Democratic Party in half, and why the polls that keep telling us who's winning have been wrong about nearly everything.Bill published a column this morning on the new CBS News/YouGov poll, and its finding is the thread running through this whole conversation: liberals and moderates agree on far more than anyone admits. Majorities will raise their own taxes for healthcare, education, food assistance, even housing. They agree the wealthy don't pay their fair share. And then you say the word "socialism" and the coalition falls apart. The fight consuming the Democratic Party right now may be a fight over branding that both sides have an incentive to keep going.Then we get into polling — Graham Platner, Janet Mills, Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan, Maine, Hawaii, Wisconsin —

Trump secretly evacuated Air Force One through a catering container while his own staff flew into a live missile threat as decoys. Karoline Leavitt is out as White House Press Secretary after a scandal-plagued tenure. AOC walks back "Woke 1.0." Matt Robison makes the case that the Supreme Court — not just Trump — is the most broken branch of government. Plus: Paramount offers to sell CNN to settle a 12-state antitrust suit, this week's Battlefield midterm scorecard, and a Dose of Hope on Flock camera surveillance and a New Jersey meteorite carrying the building blocks of life.Matt Robison and Republican strategist Matt Wylie break down the week in politics — where PTI meets The Daily Show. New episodes every week.

Our in-house Republican strategist just said MAGA is "breaking and being exposed for the fraud that it was." This week, on Political Rehab, all five stories were the same story: Republicans at war with Republicans.Trump's cabinet turned on itself in public — Jeanine Pirro's office dropped every reflecting pool vandalism case after admitting the damage was botched no-bid contractor work, and she and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are now openly blaming each other. Trump reportedly exploded at Pete Hegseth over severe missile and interceptor shortages, Hegseth blamed his own deputy, and Trump is threatening prison for whoever leaked it. The online right turned on its own DHS Secretary, Mark Wayne Mullen, for the sin of saying "legal immigration" out loud. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson convened a cabin meeting in Maine that has MAGA talking openly about a third party and a Carlson 2028 run. And Trump demanded the Senate cancel its August recess over the SAVE Act — only for

Todd Blanche gave up $1.8 billion to get confirmed as Attorney General. He kept the part that shields Donald Trump's tax returns — and the part that lets him decide what you see of the Epstein files.Former federal prosecutor Glenn Kirschner and Epstein files investigator Ellie Leonard joined me live the morning the Senate Judiciary Committee advanced Blanche's nomination. What they laid out is worse than the headlines.Glenn's verdict on what Blanche actually surrendered to flip Senators Cornyn and Tillis: "That would be exactly nothing." Ellie went inside the in-camera hearing where Blanche had to justify ten redactions to a federal judge, and explains why his answers are what she calls "tapioca pudding."And we get into the question nobody in corporate media is asking: after hundreds of judicial rebukes, four lawyers referred for discipline over the IRS settlement alone, and a Justice Department now suing bar associations to protect its own — will a single one of these attorney

Republicans spent the week chasing Anthony Fauci while their 2026 battlefield caught fire. Todd Blanche’s nomination stalled, Trump’s lawyers admitted the administration targeted blue states for political payback, the Iran war moved into a more dangerous phase—and nearly every major midterm indicator shifted toward Democrats.In this episode of Political Rehab, Republican strategist Matt Wylie and Democratic insider Matt Robison examine a disastrous week for the GOP—and why nearly every major political indicator is now moving toward Democrats.Anthony Fauci takes the Fifth before the Senate as Republicans revive the political battles of 2020. Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination stalls because the Trump administration refuses to provide two Republican senators with even the smallest assurance that the Justice Department’s political weaponization fund is dead.Then Trump’s own lawyers make an extraordinary courtroom admission: 283 of 284 canceled Energy Department grants were located in states that voted fo

**What will decide the battle for the U.S. Senate in 2026?** Just months ago, most political analysts thought Democrats had almost no realistic path to winning back the Senate. Today, the map looks dramatically different.In this episode of **Worth Knowing**, Matt Robison is joined by **Lauren French**, Communications Director for Senate Majority PAC, for an inside look at how Democrats believe the battlefield has shifted—and what they're seeing in polling and internal data that the public hasn't yet seen. Later, former Congressman **Paul Hodes** joins to break down the critical Maine Senate race and whether Susan Collins is more vulnerable than ever.**Topics include:*** Why Democrats suddenly have multiple paths to a Senate majority* Which Senate races are moving toward Democrats* North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, and more* Why affordability—not democracy—is the centerpiece of Democratic messaging* The latest on Susan Collins and Troy Jackson in Maine* How fundraising, Super P

Why would Donald Trump want Democrats to win? Because losing Congress could give him exactly what he needs: an enemy to blame, a new fundraising target and freedom from responsibility for what happens next.In this episode of Political Rehab, Republican strategist Matt Wylie and Democratic insider Matt Robison examine the growing argument that Trump is sacrificing the Republican Party’s 2026 midterm prospects for his own political benefit.Republicans are heading into recess without a convincing answer on affordability, housing, tariffs or the continuing war with Iran. Trump has shown little urgency about helping vulnerable GOP candidates, while Republicans increasingly fall back on symbolic votes, election-integrity talking points and attacks on Democratic socialists.We break down:• Why Republicans cannot explain the cost or endgame of the Iran war• What the New Jersey voter-registration failure actually proves• Why the SAVE Act would not have prevented that software error• Whether Todd Blanche’s nomination is

Republican strategist Matt Wylie looks at the new midterm fundraising numbers and says it out loud: "We're getting our butt kicked out there." This week on Political Rehab: Trump's primetime election bombshell, JD Vance's explosive Joe Rogan interview, the DSA platform that has Fox News thrilled, the GOP civil war over ICE, and the fundraising numbers turning Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina into real Democratic opportunities.Matt Robison (former Democratic Hill staffer) and Matt Wylie (Republican strategist) break down the week's biggest political stories — plus their weekly Battlefield midterm scoreboard and a Dose of Hope segment busting two myths about daylight saving time.TOPICS COVERED:

The conversation explores one central question: What should ordinary people do when a government begins crossing moral lines? Matt Robison sits down with Gal Beckerman of The Atlantic to discuss his powerful new book How to Be a Dissident—drawing lessons from Václav Havel, Alexei Navalny, Hannah Arendt, Nelson Mandela, the Civil Rights Movement, Soviet dissidents, and more.This isn't a conversation about performative outrage or easy answers. It's about the difficult moral choices every democracy eventually asks of its citizens:• When should you resist?• What kinds of resistance actually matter?• Is protest enough?• Does political satire accomplish anything?• How do ordinary people find the courage to stand up to power?Whether you agree or disagree with every conclusion, this discussion explores one of the defining questions of our time.Subscribe for more conversations about democracy, politics, elections, and the future of America.Substack:https://worthknowing.substack.comYouTube:https://www.youtube.c