Off The Record With Paul Hodes

We are about to find out if Kamala Harris' biggest advantage is going to make the winning difference: a subject I cover in depth in my new column in Newsweek today. One person who knows quite a lot about it and who believes that the answer is yes is Matt Wiley, a Republican political consultant and former executive director of the Massachusetts Republican party who has managed many Senate campaigns. He lays out the case for why he not only thinks Harris' advantage is going to make a difference, but why he feels confident that Trump is going to lose. He also explains how Trump has destroyed the party that he believes in and how both Republicans and Democrats might change course after the election. 02:54 The Importance of Ground Game 07:21 Random Factors in Elections 09:19 Republican Party Challenges 18:05 Trump's Campaign Strategy 22:18 Polling and Election Predictions 24:34 The Future of the Republican Party 25:08 Challenges for the Democratic Party 27:39 Concerns About the 2024 Election 31:16 The Importanc

Right now the F word is all over the news. Donald Trump's longest serving chief of staff, retired four-star Marine general John Kelly, said that Donald Trump is literally the dictionary definition of a "fascist" and Kamala Harris agreed. So is this going to be the Harris campaign's closing argument in the final 10 days? And should it be? Also, the quiet campaign that Democrats are starting to whisper into the ears of Republican women, especially women in Republican areas.

Where are we with two weeks to go? That's what my good friend, legendary radio broadcaster, Howard Monroe wanted to ask me on his show yesterday. And so we ran through all of it. Where do things stand? What could they turn on in the end? And is there hope for Democrats, as the polls have seemed to shift very slightly in Donald Trump's direction? And before we got into any of that, Howard wanted to talk about texting. What is the effect of all of these fundraising texts and emails that we're all constantly getting, do they work? And I suggested that they might be working kind of, but they might also be having a really destructive long term effect that no one is really talking about. 00:23 The Impact of Fundraising Texts 03:22 The Science Behind Political Messaging 11:58 The Final Countdown to the Election 14:01 The Butterfly Effect in Elections 16:36 Trump's Recent Behavior and Public Perception 17:56 Economic Plans and Public Opinion 19:50 Polling Trends and Voter Behavior 27:44 The Final Countdown to Electi

Jason Fields, Deputy Opinion Editor at Newsweek, shares the five sources of fresh insights in politics and current affairs that are worth spending your time on, give new insight or just freshen up what you thought you knew. Also, is Kamala Harris pulling off a major vanishing act? What's up with the Elon Musk's bizarre, illegal scheme to help Trump that came to light over the weekend? And how have things changed in the way we do political discourse in America? 00:40 Interview with Jason Fields: Insights from a Newsroom Veteran 01:32 Kamala Harris: The Vanishing Act 06:12 Trump's Unpredictable Political Landscape 10:20 Elon Musk's Controversial Moves 14:45 The True Believers vs. The Grift Class 19:33 The Age Dilemma 20:02 The Evolution of Political Debate 23:27 The Browser Tab Phenomenon 24:48 Newsweek's Diverse Opinions 29:20 Top Writers and Their Impact 37:17 Election Predictions and Reflections

We just crossed an invisible line in the 2024 election. Ever since the presidential debate, Kamala Harris has held a small but steady lead in the critical swing state polls. That made her the favorite to win in the election, even by a small amount. But this week that forecast slipped away. So we ask: is this really happening? Is this really a situation where Trump is now the favorite to win? Alicia laid out a case that it will not end up that close. And she remains confident that Trump cannot and will not win. We also talked about the US political impact of the death of the Hamas leader and Kamala Harris' big Fox News interview. And at the end we give you the definitive readout on Donald Trump's 39 minutes of straight dancing at a rally. 00:00 Election Forecast Shifts: Trump Takes the Lead 01:26 International News: Death of Hamas Leader 06:31 Kamala Harris's Fox News Interview 10:47 Media Bias and Its Impact on Elections 23:03 Polling Numbers and Forecasts 24:25 Alicia's Analysis: Trump's Chances in the Elec

What if I told you that we're looking at polling numbers in the wrong way? We're all inundated with polling right now as we enter the final three weeks of the 2024 election, and we're used to looking at those polls with one question in mind. Who's ahead? But today's guest says we shouldn't be looking at the margin. We should be looking at the share of the vote that each candidate is getting. And that tells us a LOT more about what's going to happen in the election. Our guest is Nate Moore, a public opinion expert who writes for the American Enterprise Institute and the Liberal Patriot. 00:59 The Importance of Vote Share 04:20 Current Polling Trends and Predictions 09:16 The Pennsylvania Problem 16:11 The Blue Shift Phenomenon 19:40 Polling Methodologies and Their Impact 26:33 Impact of Mark Robinson Scandal 29:21 The Butterfly Effect in Elections 32:26 Electoral System and Party Dynamics 38:36 Key Races to Watch 40:42 Election Night Indicators

Kamala Harris has every advantage -- money, ads, volunteers -- but is stuck in polling against Donald Trump. Matt, Paul and Alicia explore what's going on. We also delve into Bob Woodward's explosive claims about Trump's secret interactions with Putin during the COVID pandemic. Also, a friendly fight breaks out on misinformation in politics. And finally, a look at the wackiest unfounded conspiracy theory circulating online these days, plus our parody (note: you do actually have to cast your vote by Election Day people!) of the kind of misinformation that's out there. 00:00 Introduction: Why Are We Stuck? 00:59 Debating Lies and Misinformation in Politics 12:20 The 2024 Election Stalemate 22:41 Trump's Secret Conversations with Putin 32:03 Conspiracy Theories and Parody

Painful as it is for Democrats (like us at the Beyond Politics podcast) to say, there's no denying that Donald Trump's economic pitch is working, especially among working-class voters. Despite significant backlash from non-partisan experts and economists, Trump is tied or ahead of Kamala Harris on the issue that voters say is most important to them. Why? And is there something Trump is saying that we should all be paying more attention to. Matt welcomes back Newsweek Opinion Editor Batya Ungar-Sargon to talk about what she sees in Trump's economic message, why she ran Trump's plan and Matt's critique of it back-to-back, and where she finds Kamala Harris hitting the right notes. ***For those wanting to see the draft piece Matt discussed on Friday on the most intriguing questions coming out of the VP debate, check out this link to his Patreon page (patrons always welcome!)*** 00:00 Introduction and Tough Question 01:38 Newsweek's Editorial Decision 03:27 Promoting Diverse Opinions 06:48 Debating Trump's Econ

The Fallout from the VP Debate: Implications for 2024 and Beyond. The big VP debate may not significantly affect the 2024 election, but it raises critical questions for American politics. Here's a quick look at the top5 big questions for the future coming out of the debate 00:00 Introduction: The Impact of the VP Debate 03:30 Trump's Mental Triggers: A Potential Downfall 04:52 Vance's Strategic Positioning in the Republican Party 06:14 The Double-Edged Sword of Vance's Success 07:22 Democrats' Rediscovery of a Powerful Issue 08:51 A New Era for Debates and Political Content? 11:32 Conclusion: Final Thoughts and Stakes

Decoding the 2024 VP Debate: Key Takeaways and Insights: Matt, Paul, and Alicia discuss the significant moments and lessons from the 2024 vice presidential debate. There is a lot going on under the surface, and even if the debate didn't move the needle that much in 2024, there's a lot to unpack about the future of the Republican Party, Trump's brain, and how we consume information in America. 00:56 Top Takeaways from the VP Debate 04:30 Analyzing JD Vance's Debate Tactics 09:16 Voter Perceptions and Poll Analysis 13:51 Engaging with Trump's Economic Policies 18:43 JD Vance's Opportunism and Future Implications 20:56 The Debate's Key Non-Answer 24:13 The MAGA Movement and Republican Party Dynamics 27:11 The Role of Expertise in Politics 32:23 Media's Role in Shaping Debate Narratives 37:09 Human Moments in Political Debates 41:59 The Future of Political Debates

Is the Presidential Race Over? Examining the Impact of the Mark Robinson Scandal: If Trump loses North Carolina, he has almost no chance at the presidency. Will the scandal be enough to end things? Also: the indictment of New York City Mayor Eric Adams and the extensive history of corruption in New York politics; the huge strategic decision Democrats must make in the fight for the Senate; and, is there a 'war on pets in American politics? 00:20 The Mark Robinson Scandal 01:20 Impact on Trump's Campaign 03:57 Republican and Democratic Strategies 15:00 Eric Adams Indictment 21:49 Analyzing the 2024 Senate Races 23:57 Strategizing Democratic Resources 32:36 Republican Controversies and Racism 38:57 The War on Pets

What would Trump's actual policy plan be if he got back into office? We can tell an awful lot from what he tried to do the first time, and most of it came at the expense of less wealthy Americans. Bob Greenstein, founder of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, joins us to discuss the far-reaching implications of Donald Trump's budget proposals during his presidency. 00:00 Introduction: The Hidden Details 03:13 Trump's Budget Proposals: A Deep Dive 20:29 The War on Poverty: Progress and Challenges 25:09 The Tariff Debate: Understanding the Impact 33:44 Future of the Republican Party 34:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Alicia's Fiery Rebuke and Trump's Scandalous Rhetoric: Unpacking the Fallout Matt, Paul, and Alicia dive into the aftermath of Donald Trump's racist claims about Haitian immigrants. Alicia passionately criticizes Trump's loyal followers and the consequences of their actions on communities like Springfield, Ohio. The discussion also explores the broader issue of heated political rhetoric from both sides, the implications of Trump's radical policy proposals, and recent polling trends in the presidential race. And finally, should this new fish speciesbe called...the Trump fish? 00:59 Trump's Racist Rhetoric and Real-World Consequences 02:53 Political Reactions and JD Vance's Role 05:07 The Broader Impact on Politics and Society 11:18 Debate on Heated Rhetoric from Both Sides 18:53 Alicia's Fiery Response 25:08 Trump's Economic Plan: A Disaster in the Making 26:12 Historical Lessons: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act 26:52 The Real Impact of Tariffs on American Consumers 27:39 Poli

PART TWO OF TWO-PART MINI SERIES FINALE. As Kamala Harris rises in the polls following her crushing performance over Donald Trump in their debate, we look at the key moments and the hidden psychological strategies that led to the rout. This is the final episode of 'The War to Win Minds' miniseries, and Matt Robison and psychologist Lauren Goldstein run down a dizzying array of mental tactics that were on display and that we will continue to see in the 2024 campaign, including maybe the most important lesson from persuasion psychology--knowing what type of persuasion you are trying to do. 01:06 Overview of Persuasion Techniques 02:31 Kamala Harris' Debate Strategy 05:59 Trump's Response and Analysis 08:40 Psychological Warfare in Debates 22:04 Closing Statements and Final Thoughts 28:08 Conclusion and Farewell

PART ONE OF TWO PART MINI SERIES FINALE. We dive into the explosive psychological strategies behind the Kamala Harris -Donald Trump presidential debate. In this episode of 'The War to Win Minds' series, Matt Robison and psychologist Lauren Goldstein break down the mental tactics used to sway voters and what Harris did to break Trump's brain. Discover how Harris dismantled Trump's arguments and left him floundering by employing clever, counterintuitive methods. 01:50 Psychological Insights into Debates 03:34 Analyzing Kamala Harris's Debate Tactics 05:17 The Impact of Presidential Debates 08:36 Persuasion Principles in Action 17:03 Trump's Tactics and Harris's Response 20:16 The Power of Storytelling and Emotional Appeal 23:45 Harris's Strategy to Undermine Trump 27:58 Conclusion and Key Takeaways

In this quick reaction show, Matt, Paul, and Alicia dive into the aftermath of the recent debate, discussing who won, who lost, and why both parties should maybe feel frustrated. Kamala Harris is broadly considered the winner against Donald Trump but how much will it matter? And will Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris matter even more? 00:54 Who Won the Debate? 03:23 Debate's Impact and Media Critique 06:15 Republican and Democratic Reactions 11:23 Missed Opportunities 17:19 The Flaws of Presidential Debates 21:18 Debate Moderators and Fact-Checking 28:29 Trump's Dangerous Rhetoric and Lies

In episode 3 of our mini series 'The War to Win Minds,' hosts Matt Robison and Lauren Goldstein delve into the concept of social proof, its influence on political campaigns, and why it's Donald Trump's not so secret weapon in the 2024 campaign. 00:32 The Power of Social Proof 03:21 The Reagan-Mondale Debate Experiment 06:35 The Elevator Experiment 07:50 Asch's Social Conformity Experiment 10:30 Social Proof in Political Campaigns 14:12 Trump's Use of Social Proof 15:32 The Double-Edged Sword of Social Proof 24:06 Polling Data and Social Proof 26:02 Conclusion: Recognizing Social Proof Techniques

Is the Kamala-mentum waning? It's a question that was raised in Politico and that's being pushed by the Republican side, especially the Trump campaign. We have some data and some insights from where the campaigns are spending their money. Also, we ask why would Kamala Harris go to New Hampshire? The unfolding legal situations for hunter Biden and Donald Trump, both in court today. And a cute animal story that goes in a disturbing direction.

ABC Legal Analyst Kim Wehle explains how the Supreme Court's decision granting immunity to US Presidents is way more far-reaching that it appears. When paired with the "pardon power," Presidents now wield a devastating one-two punch of power. Wehle is the author of a fascinating new book on the history and law of the pardon, and why Americans need to understand just how dangerous this power has become. Also: a look at the current legal situations involving Donald Trump, Jack Smith's refiling of the election interference case, and Judge Aileen Cannon's dismissal of the classified documents case. 01:34 Jack Smith's Election Interference Case 05:38 Aileen Cannon and the Classified Documents Case 09:09 The Supreme Court's Role and Bias 20:58 The History and Importance of Pardon Power 26:23 Potential Reforms and Fixes 29:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Episode Two of The War to Win Minds: The Hidden Psychology of Political Persuasion. Matt Robison and Dr. Lauren Goldstein dive deep into the liking principle and break down campaign ads to show how politicians like Kamala Harris use similarities, compliments, attractiveness, and associations shape to change voters' minds and shape public opinion. Learn strategies used by campaigns to make their candidates more likable in ads from Barack Obama, Raphael Warnock, and Kamala Harris. 00:37 The Cartoon That Explains Opinion Formation 02:52 The Psychology Behind Likability 05:13 The Halo Effect and Attractiveness 08:53 Similarity and Its Challenges 13:39 The Power of Compliments 16:19 Association and Its Impact 19:21 Kamala Harris's Fearless Ad 24:57 Conclusion and Preview of Next Episode