Off The Record With Paul Hodes

Is the turmoil surrounding Joe Biden's potential dropout from the presidential race wrapping up, or ramping up? Is it even possible that the media is simply fueling this narrative for drama and traffic, obscuring where their focus should be on Donald Trump's controversial plans for America? Check out Matt's newest Newsweek article on the exceedingly dangerous Trump plan for a second term. 02:47 The Media's Influence on Public Perception 04:39 Internal Democratic Party Tensions 07:00 Public Sentiment and Polls 10:51 Strategic Dilemmas for Democrats 18:45 Media Criticism and Public Backlash 21:17 Media Bias and Math 30:06 Project 2025: A Blueprint for Trump's Second Term 35:38 Pornography and the RNC

It's one of the biggest questions looming over American politics: what will the centrists do? There are as many as 71 million self-identified centrists in America - people who don't feel entirely comfortable with either major political party, and largely agree on most issues - and these are the people who are probably going to decide which of two very different paths America follows. So why can't either party nail them down? And which way will they go? Former Republican Congressman and centrist Scott Klug, host of the podcast Lost in the Middle joins to explain. ***Don't forget to leave us a rating and review!*** ***Subscribe to Lost in the Middle! https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lost-in-the-middle-americas-political-orphans/id1706739467*** 02:21 Centrists and the Trump-Biden Debate 09:47 How the Middle Got Lost 24:16 The Rise of Independents and Future of Politics 32:43 Ticket Splitting and Political Trends 37:42 Democratic Party Dynamics 48:30 Favorite Funniest Moments in Congress

President Biden's candidacy is in what's increasingly looking like a death spiral. But "should he stick it out or should he drop out" is the wrong question. There is a much better and a much more important question that Democrats really need to ask. Also, is the Supreme Court's presidential immunity decision as bad as it seemed; should Russian athletes should be banned from international athletic competitions; and why sometimes scientific advance can be downright disgusting. 02:24 The Biden Question: Will He or Won't He? 04:05 Democratic Party's Internal Chaos 10:39 Polling and Public Perception 19:05 The Future of the Democratic Party 24:40 Debating Kamala Harris's Role 30:44 The Supreme Court's Immunity Ruling 39:54 Politics in International Sports 45:17 The Creepy Robot Face

"The president is now a king above the law. With fear for our democracy, I dissent." Those were the words of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor about yesterday's Supreme court decision conferring what the press described as "partial immunity" on Donald Trump and future presidents for crimes they may commit in office. But the reality goes much deeper than that. Legal scholar Kim Wehle -- a former US Attorney who regularly explains rulings like this on ABC news (subscribe to her substack here)-- explains the stark reality of what this ruling could mean. 01:29 Implications of the Ruling 03:42 Motivated Reasoning and Judicial Philosophy 09:37 The Role of Intent and Evidence 12:58 Political and Social Ramifications 22:08 The Importance of Voting and Democracy 25:36 Conclusion: Reflecting on the Future

BONUS EPISODE: There are two paths in the road ahead for Biden and the Democrats after President Joe Biden's rough debate. There is a roadmap for how he can recover--but can Biden pull it off? And if he can't, what does the unprecedented pathway of him dropping out look like? CHECK OUT MATT'S NEWSWEEK ARTICLE COVERING THIS ISSUE IN DEPTH: https://www.newsweek.com/disastrous-debate-biden-leaves-path-forward-democrats-opinion-1918957 01:44 Analyzing Biden's Debate Performance 03:38 Media Reactions and Public Perception 08:47 Strategic Pathways for Biden 10:40 Potential Replacement Scenarios 24:36 Concluding Thoughts

The debate went very badly for Joe Biden. And whether it's fair or not, the reality is that Biden's path to stopping Trump has gotten much harder. Matt, Paul, and Alicia delve into the key question of what happens next. Can Biden recover? What would that take? And if his team concludes that he can't, what would that look like? 01:32 Analyzing Biden's Performance 04:13 Media Perception and Reality 09:11 Debate Performance vs. Presidential Capability 12:12 The Elephant in the Room: Biden's Future 14:07 Strategies for Biden's Campaign 19:44 Political Campaign Strategies 24:40 Potential Democratic Candidates 26:51 The Chaos of an Open Convention 29:44 Democratic Party's Path Forward 36:33 Closing Thoughts -- Just in Case It All Goes Wrong

We're in the middle of a fight, as president Biden put it, for the soul of America. We face diametrically opposing visions of the future, and a ton of difficult questions. Even if we win the election, do we just have the bigger threat of everything Donald Trump has unleashed looming ahead of us? What about the way we're waging this fight? I just wrote an article in Washington Monthly arguing that the way we fight in American politics simply may not work in most cases anymore. So if the stakes are really that high shouldn't we be doing something else?And what about the big issue of the nervous breakdown that we seem to be going through as a country? We talk to Dimitri Mehlhorn, political advisor to Democratic donor Reid Hoffman, and one of the Democratic Party's deepest thinkers, about these questions. 02:28 The 2024 Election: What Are We Doing Right and Wrong? 04:14 Trump's Criminal Record: New Information for Voters 09:20 The Challenge of Swing Voters and Polling 13:32 The Permanent Figh

Why did the Biden campaign decide to launch a blistering new line of attack right now? And what does it tell us about what his closest advisers are seeing from the inside? We connected a few dots to try to figure out the answer. Also, a flood of big news from the tech and political world, including. And, has the Trump campaign figured out how to manipulate the media as laziness and in attention. And we close with a really delicious story, which ends up with me asking: Is Alicia Preston a French RINO traitor. But we had to start with the news yesterday of a sweeping new investigation into MAGA Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz, and an unprecedented broadside from the House Ethics committee. 00:59 Matt Gaetz Under Investigation 06:37 Biden Campaign's New Strategy 10:18 Ground Game Importance in Elections 16:01 Hi-Tech Hijinks and Social Media Concerns 20:13 The Surgeon General's Warning on Social Media 24:29 Trump Campaign's Media Manipulation 31:40 Soccer Predictions and Politics

With Donald Trump's sentencing in New York rapidly approaching, we ask, what should we want out of the judges sentencing? It's really not that clear cut, since the answer invokes issues of justice, precedent and practical politics. What will this mean for the 2024 election? How would different sentences change voters' perceptions and each sides' message? 03:38 Trump's Legal Troubles and Political Implications 15:22 Sentencing Possibilities and Ramifications

So what happened when Donald Trump went back to the scene of the crime? We're talking of course, about his visit to Congress, the independent branch of government that he urged his supporters to attack as he inspired them to attempted insurrection. We also got into the hunter Biden verdict, and the question of whether Members of Congress really misplayed the political messaging about it. We also talked about the abortion pill ruling and how the media handled that. And then today is Donald Trump's birthday. And we took the liberty at the very end of the show of proposing our very own set of birthday presents for him. 01:00 Trump's Capitol Hill Visit: A Bizarre Return 06:36 Trump's Influence and Republican Sycophancy 12:08 Nikki Haley and the Future of the Republican Party 19:34 Supreme Court Ruling on Mifepristone 24:57 Hunter Biden's Legal Troubles 30:21 Justice System and Political Influence 38:02 Trump's Birthday

Today, we look at the source of power that has driven the Republican Party for the last five decades, and has shaped the policies, politics, and politicians who in turn shape our lives. Political scientist EJ Fagan's new book 'The Thinkers,' dives into the origins, methods, and extensive power that these institutions quietly wield. 01:07 The Power Behind the Throne 03:41 The Garbage Can Model in Policy Making 11:32 Heritage's Legacy and Modern Think Tanks 20:05 The Intellectual Orthodoxy of Conservatism 20:53 Nixon and Environmental Policies 21:58 The Laffer Curve and Alternative Facts 27:31 Think Tanks and Policy Influence 34:56 Funding and Influence of Think Tanks 38:09 Polarization and the Role of Think Tanks

Int he aftermath of Donald Trump's felony conviction, polls are suggesting that critical voters are turning on him. So why are all the big name Republicans so determined to stick with him, and suggest dangerous, scary reprisals? Also is Biden's big border executive order going to make a political difference. Plus, President Biden boxed in Bibi Netanyahu on the peace deal that's on the table between Israel and Hamas. Finally, we have a bold prediction on the NBA finals. 01:03 The Aftermath of Trump's Conviction 05:02 Republican Disconnect and MAGA Penalty 06:54 Faith in Voters and Polling Insights 17:48 Biden's Border Executive Order 27:35 Netanyahu and the Israel-Gaza Conflict 36:53 NBA Finals Predictions and Conclusion

ProPublica reporter Andy Kroll just went deep inside the epicenter of MAGA insanity, and found some unsettling things. What drives the MAGA movement is not policy or even support for Trump anymore, but something worse, something that's been on full display since Trump's conviction in New York. And it paints a troubling picture of the post-Trump future of the Republican Party. 01:40 A Disturbing Scene 06:47 The Ideological Divide in MAGA 16:17 The Rise and Fall of Christina Karamo 21:57 The Rise of Nihilism in the Republican Party 25:45 The Future of the Republican Party Post-Trump 29:42 The Entrenchment of Election Denialism 40:28 A Glimmer of Hope: Grassroots Education

A quick interview with Howard Monroe about the impact of the Trump conviction

We start with an emergency segment recorded late this evening on the news that Donald Trump has been convicted on all 34 counts int he New York fraud trial, and is now a felon. We sort through the legal next steps and the political implications. We then shift to our earlier recording and hit the big story from Congressman Jamie Raskin and his proposal about how to force Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito off of the Supreme court cases involving Donald Trump because of their obvious bias. And finally, you'll want to hang on until the end. When we talk about whether we found the single dumbest criminal defendant in history. 00:00 Trump's Conviction: Immediate Reactions 02:14 Legal Analysis of the Verdict 04:43 Political Fallout and Public Reaction 08:29 Implications for American Democracy 11:36 Future Legal Proceedings and Sentencing 23:14 Supreme Court Controversies 38:53 Zoom Courtroom Mishaps

It's a shocking story we hear almost nothing about: huge corporations exploiting some of the $900 billion a year in government programs aimed at helping America's poor, and pocketing hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars along the way. Anne Kim, a Contributing Editor at Washington Monthly, shares some of the most riveting stories from her book 'Poverty for Profit' (publishing TODAY at this link) a deep dive into what these companies are doing, who is being hurt, and why we decided as a country to outsource the poverty industry. Anne also explains why there's still some good news and hope for the future. 00:51 The Shocking Reality of the Poverty Industry 04:31 The Earned Income Tax Credit: A Double-Edged Sword 10:54 Maximus: The Giant Behind Welfare Outsourcing 16:48 The Dark Side of Medicaid and Dialysis Centers 21:19 The Bail Bond System: Preying on the Vulnerable 23:22 The Roots of Privatization and Its Impact on Poverty 30:03 Reimagining Government's Role and the Path Forward

Yes, Donald Trump did kind of tell supporters that he's dead. Our round table discussion started with deep, interesting question: after all the talk about polarization and division, is there actually a powerful emerging centrist movement in America? But then, Alicia dropped something kind of fascinating and disturbing into the conversation, an email from Donald Trump that seems to imply the he is currently dead. And as if that wasn't amusing enough, we close the show on one of the deepest existential questions facing America: what is the sandwich really? We actually had a legal read on that from a real court this week. 01:24 Exploring the Existence of a Political Center in America 05:54 The Rise and Impact of Performative Politics 07:53 The MAGA Movement and Its Influence 16:54 The Future of Republican Moderates and the MAGA Legacy 22:28 Is Trump...Dead? 28:47 The Biden vs. Trump Debate: Age, Sanity, and Governance 30:24 The Great Sandwich Debate: What Qualifies?

Are Democrats really shedding massive amounts of support from African American voters? There are certainly warning signs of trouble -- including a New York times poll showing Trump getting the support of more than 20% of Black Americans. But Mario Broussard and Ana Robinson of Global Strategy Group say that the actual picture is a lot more nuanced than that, and that if the numbers suggest anything, it's that there are things Biden and the Democrats can do to hold on to the critical core of the Democrats' base. 01:21 Young Black Women's Voting Enthusiasm and Economic Struggles 04:49 The Impact of Abortion Rights on Young Black Women Voters 15:27 Economic Concerns Among Black Voters 26:34 Messaging Strategies for Democrats: Addressing Key Voter Concerns 32:31 The Role of Social Media and Influencers in Engaging Young Voters

After a major standoff, Trump and Biden have agreed to two presidential debates. Did Biden win this exchange? And how much does it really matter? Also, a quick breakdown of Michael Cohen's testimony, and the question of whether Trump's political defenses in the hush money trial are actually kind of working. Plus, a very weird New York Times poll from this week and a continued run of voting results that Donald Trump should be finding downright scary. Plus, our closing segment has snakes on a plane. No, really. And we closed with snakes on a plane. No, literally. I mean, it. Snakes on a plane, 00:00 Opening Remarks: The Role of Debates in Politics 00:46 Debating the Debates: Trump vs. Biden 02:27 The Circus of Presidential Debates 04:26 Breaking Tradition: The New Debate Format 06:19 The Argument Against Debates 10:53 Character and Policy in Debates 17:02 Strategic Analysis: Biden vs. Trump Debate Dynamics 19:29 Trump's Debate Strategy and Poll Analysis 20:16 Breaking Down Trump's Legal Chall

Lauren Goldstein of Change Research dives into a fascinating study aims to get inside the minds of voters and could help explain why they feel so negative about the most important issue of the 2024 election - the economy. Also, why they do things differently than most opinion researchers, and how that can help change the way we talk to voters. 01:38 Exploring the Real Economic Pain Points of Voters 05:20 The Psychological Underpinnings of Financial Comparisons 10:09 Addressing the Generational Divide and Economic Pessimism 17:08 Strategies for Effective Political Communication 23:13 The Secret Handshake and Used Car Fraud Metaphors 31:29 Innovative Approaches to Public Opinion Research 34:37 The Importance of Listening and Adapting Messaging