Arms Control Wonk

Aaron and Jeffrey crossed paths in Philadelphia for a TTX about space nukes and escalation dynamics. The two caught up on the game, the recent news from USAF Secretary about US weapons in orbit, and what it all means for the new space race.  Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Is space based missile defense all gold and no dome? Aaron and Jeffrey sit down with FPRI Fellow Sam Lair to discuss their forthcoming paper about the costs of space based missile defense. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Aaron and Jeffrey have a lot to announce. On this special episode of the show, the two let the listeners in on their future plans, and take a look back at the history of the podcast.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

China has conducted a test of its JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile into the open ocean — a departure from its usual practice of lobbing missiles into the desert or splashing them down in domestic waters. Jeffrey and Aaron Stein sit down to talk about why China would test this way: what an open-ocean flight test actually demonstrates, how it mirrors the way the United States, Russia, France, and other nuclear powers have long tested their sea-based deterrents, and what it tells us that China is increasingly behaving like a normal nuclear weapons state. They also dig into what the test suggests about China's internal politics — who benefits from testing in a more conventional way, and what it means when the world's most opaque nuclear program starts doing things everyone can see.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website.  In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search for Iran's commitment to not build nuclear weapons, the top result is Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.  Aaron and Jeffrey work through why Trump was right to quit while he was behind, why continuing the fight wouldn't have changed a single comma, and why, weeks later, you still can't find the thing on state.gov.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!  

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the Trump administration's review of nuclear strategy, the case for uploading, and what it all means for the looming arms race. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia tested the RS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM, which will replace the SS-18/RS-36M Satan.   What's it for?  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the role of heavy ICBMs, the foundational assumption for counterforce, the rise of orbital bombardment systems (FOBS!!!!!!!!), the collapse of the ABM Treaty and the future of space-based interceptors. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

It's been a long time, we shouldnt have left you, but we got a dope pod to step too. Or at least we think so. After a brief hiatus, Aaron and Jeffrey return to discuss the latest from the Iran war and what it means for arms control. It ends with Jeffrey geeking out on Dark Eagle, the missile CENTCOM wants and Jeffrey is obsessed with   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

U.S. Undersecretary of State Tom DiNanno accused China of conducting decoupled, low-yield nuclear tests including on June 22, 2020.  Aaron and Jeffrey talk about seismic monitoring of nuclear tests, the role of hydronuclear testing, and what might be going on.    Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The New START treaty has expired leaving the US and Russia without a bilateral limit on offensive strategic arms for the first time in decades. There is reportedly a handshake deal not to do anything drastic for six months while the two sides talk about the outlines of a future deal, but there seems to be little agreement about what such a deal might look like.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the end of New START, the prospects for and constraints on a looming arms race, and why even bother with arms control treaties at all.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Russia has deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus and then, from Russia, conducted another Oreshnik test.  Jefffrey and Aaron discuss how the open source team found the deployment site in Belarus before Russia announced it, what they think Oreshnik is, and how Russia managed to violate two arms control treaties with one missile.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Jeffrey and Scott watched the new Kathryn Bigelow movie "House of Dynamite" and they both have opinions. The crew talks through both the artistic choices as well as the wonky details. "House of Dynamite" is an interesting take on missile defense and decisionmaking that doesn't quite commit enough to any philosophical or strategic camp, but ultimately may be the lens through which a lot of non-wonks view or interact with missile defenses, conceptually, as we move towards a potential major expansion of US missile defenses.  We should do a watch party. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Donald Trump directed "the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" with other countries.  The Department of War doesn't test nuclear weapons, the Department of Energy does all the time in lots of different ways.  Some people worried this meant a return to explosive testing, others seemed to think it was about delivery systems.  Subsequent statements by the Vice President and the Secretary of Defense didn't clarify things. Aaron and Jeffrey sit down to try to make some sense of it all.   Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn't, and what it all mean. Hint: Allies should stand up their own targeting capabilities.   Watch the video episode here! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the OSINT and the political implications. Watch the video episode here! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Aaron and Jeffrey finally deconflict their schedules to talk about the outcome of the Israeli-Iranian war, Iran’s pathway back to the bomb, and why they’re both irritated with the “fix it or nix it crowd.” Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest new from Iran, where Israel has been launching strike on leadership, nuclear, and missile targets. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

In what seems like clockwork, India and Pakistan fought an “almost war” recently, prompting concerns about the risk of nuclear war. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to talk about the crisis, the meaning of deterrence, and how it worked during this recent flare up.   Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

The Trump administration appears to be willing to return to the JCPOA, so long as you do not call it the JCPOA. Aaron and Jeffrey sat down to discuss the latest back and forth with Iran and what’s at stake with the return to nuclear negotiations.

Aaron and Jeffrey sat down for their first video podcast to discuss the cost of Brilliant Swarm, the name du moment of Brilliant Pebbles, aka space based missile defense.  Watch the video pod over on YouTube! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!