Bloomberg Surveillance

Jose Rasco, HSBC Chief Investment Strategist at HSBC Private Bank Americas, expects the Fed to remain on hold this year. Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist & Head of Global Economics and Markets Research, doesn't think inflation is dead. Dan Tannebaum, PwC United States Principal and Global Sanctions Leader, thinks it's unlikely that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, predicts negative economic growth in 2020. 

Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank Chief Financial Economist, says the U.S. economy is strong. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, discusses next steps in the Mueller investigation. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Management Director of Market Strategy, expects earnings and U.S. growth to be heavier in the end of the year. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, argues that in labor force terms, unemployment claims are at all time lows.

Taylor Riggs, Bloomberg News Reporter, discusses JPMorgan's succession plans. Michael Shaoul, Marketfield Asset Management Chairman, Portfolio Manager & CEO, doesn't think the Mueller report will have an impact on trade talks. Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor and Peter G. Peterson Chair, says Trump's foreign policy isn't sustainable or effective. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says the justice department is a highly politicized agency.

Anand Srinivasan, Senior Semiconductor and Hardware Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the Qualcomm-Apple settlement and what it means for chip stocks. Doug Duncan, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, on the spring buying season, outlook for mortgage rates, and consumer attitudes on housing. Tuna Amobi, CFRA Research’s media and entertainment analyst, on Netflix and big media earnings. Jitendra Waral, Senior Analyst: Internet & Consumer Products for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Pinterest's IPO.

Yalman Onaran, Bloomberg Senior Writer, analyzes Morgan Stanley's earnings report. Gerry Fowler, Aberdeen Standard Investments Multi-Asset Strategist, says Europe is the Catch-up trade. Simon Johnson, MIT Sloan School of Management Global Economics Professor, highlights the need of spreading opportunities out of the coastal cities. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst of Media, thinks Netflix results show fairly significant pricing power. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Head of Public Policy, doesn't expect to see a Democratic nominee until late spring or summer. 

Mona Mahajan, Allianz Global Investors U.S. Investment Strategist, says banks doesn't thrive in a flattening yield curve environment. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy and Large Cap Bank Analyst, thinks that technology will complement, not substitute the human component on the banking sector. Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Media Analyst, predicts Netflix and Disney will emerge as winners in the streaming sector. Matthew Luzzetti, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist, says 2% GDP growth is the new normal. Bloomberg's Bob Moon says Notre Dame has always managed to rise again. 

The mood in Paris today is somber after a fire ripped through the Notre Dame Cathedral. The iconic structure took more than 200 years to build and just a few hours to burn. It's rich with history, serving as a setting to crown kings and celebrate the liberation of Paris from the Nazis. As French authorities assess the damage and craft plans to rebuild the monument, Bloomberg's Tom Keene, Bob Moon and Annmarie Hordern reflect on the moment.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says Fed Chairman Powell is a "capable, qualified and independent" chief. Fred Cannon, KBW Global Director of Research, will focus on net interest margins during this bank earnings season. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Banking Reporter, talks banking and IPOs. Diane Swonk, Grant Thorton Chief Economist, says the Federal Reserve Board hasn't always been as strong as it is now. 

Catherine Mann, Citi Global Chief Economist, and Lupin Rahman, PIMCO Head of EM Sovereign Credit, discuss China's latest economic data. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President, says low interest rates in Europe are the scariest development in bond markets he has ever seen. Chris Whalen, RC Whalen Global Advisers, thinks JPMorgan is fairly valued. Adrienne Elrod, Democratic Strategist & Clinton 2016 Campaign Director of Strategic Communications, says Bernie Sanders is the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Partner & Senior Portfolio Management, sees a higher probability of a Fed cut than a hike. Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley Head of Banks & Diversified Finance Research, expects weak numbers in this banks earnings season. Bill Lee, Milken Institute Chief Economist, says that Europe is the last place he would invest. Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation Distinguished Visiting Fellow, wants "openness and sunlight on the Fed" if he joined the board. Representative Debbie Dingell, Democrat from Michigan, points out the lack of a regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles in the U.S. 

Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, expects two Fed rate cuts and stocks to go higher in 2019. Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, thinks the Euro will move to the downside. Julia Coronado, Macropolicy Perspectives Founder, thinks markets were not expecting Draghi to deliver a lot-and he didn't. Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Analyst, says it's time to increase the effectiveness of bank regulations. 

Drew Matus, Metlife Investment Management Chief Market Strategist, says it's very difficult to drive the U.S. into a recession from overseas. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, thinks protecting NAFTA is the main priority of the business community. Laura Rosner, Macropolicy Perspectives Senior Economist, says technology is keeping inflation muted. Martin Indyk, Council on Foreign Relations Distinguished Fellow & Former Ambassador to Israel, says whoever wins the Israeli elections will need a coalition with small parties to govern. Sarah McGregor, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Policy Team Leader, says the silver lining in the IMF report is that it highlights that things will potentially improve in the second half of next year. 

Vasileios Gkionakis, Banque Lombard Odier Global Head of FX Strategy, says the Fed has maintained its full independence. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the dollar is behaving as a safe heaven. Admiral James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, says it's good value for the U.S. to stay in NATO. Roland Rudd, Finsbury Public Relations Founder and Chairman of Business for News, says recently, Parliament has reaffirmed its authority. 

Davide Serra, Algebris Investments CEO, says there are too many banks in Europe. Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, doesn't think this is a "dollar-sell" environment. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor, believes it would have been smart to have cross-party discussions since the Brexit referendum. Bob Michele, JP Morgan Chief Investment Officer, sees everyone scrambling for yield right now. 

Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua host from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. In this episode, we feature our TV & Radio interviews with: Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates CEO, Jacob Frenkel, JPMorgan Chase International Chairman, Luigi Zingales, Chicago Booth School Professor, and Jim O'Neill, Chatham House Chair. 

Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, does not think wage growth is translating into inflation. Mike Darda, MKM Partners Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, sees solid job growth without signs of overheating. Larry Kudlow, U.S. National Economic Council Director, says the U.S. economy is "really coming back." Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, highlights the improvements in labor market participation.

Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, says the yield curve predicts and also causes recessions. Derek Halpenny, MUFG European Head of Global Markets Research, says central banks have a significant appetite for the Euro. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, considers it hyperbolic to say we are going into an earnings recession. Brian Deese, BlackRock Global Head of Sustainable Investing, talks climate change and risks to investors. 

Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of FI Research, thinks U.S. bonds look cheap globally.  Emma Ross-Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, updates us on Parliament's plans to avoid a no-deal Brexit. David Page, AXA Investment Managers Senior Economist U.S. & U.K., expects some euro appreciation. Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group Chief Investment Strategist, thinks this is a good environment for stocks. 

Lord Andrew Adonis, Former U.K. Secretary of State For Transport, speaks in favor of a second referendum. David Bloom, HSBC Global Head of FX Strategy, says the FX market has become very political. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Global CIO & Head Of Global Fixed Income, thinks the Fed is holding rates for the next two years. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Senior Economist, foresees U.S. growth bouncing back in the coming months. And Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley Global Head of Interest Rate Strategy, says he's currently neutral on the bond market. 

Chris Verrone, Strategas Partner & Head of Technical Strategy, thinks sentiment is too extreme with the long bond call. Robert Shiller, Yale Professor, says he is not a buy and hold advocate. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor & 'The UK in a Changing Europe' Sr. Fellow, says there are parties within parties in U.K. Parliament. Logan D. Green and John Zimmer, Lyft Inc Co-Founders, see a shift from the car ownership to the sharing model.