Bloomberg Surveillance

Troy Gayeski, Skybridge Capital Co-CIO, says as the trade war escalates, the probability of a rate hike decreases. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says we are almost at a bipolar world in terms of economic spheres of influence. Bob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital CEO, says Deutsche Bank lacks a strong domestic retail business. Seema Shah, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Consumer Analyst, says its an unknown for Home Depot if they will be impacted by tariffs. 

Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse Chief US Equity Strategist, says the likelihood of a recession is very low. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Investment Banking Reporter, discusses the possibility of a leadership change at Deutsche Bank. Bill Schneider, George Mason Professor & Author, "Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable", thinks Joe Biden's candidacy represents a return to normal. Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, does not see a rate cut this year. 

Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, sees a permanent dollar shortage in China. Miranda Carr, Haitong International China Macro Strategist, thinks China is overconfident about how little tariffs impact their economy. Kate Bedingfield, Biden Deputy Campaign Manager, discusses Joe Biden's middle class roots. Bob Michele, JPMorgan Asset Management Global CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, notes the amount of money in money market funds is the highest since the financial crisis. Amy Myers Jaffe, CFR Senior Fellow for Energy & the Environment and Director of the Program on Energy Security & Climate Change, says the oil market is too relaxed for the current level of risk.

Ann Cairns, Mastercard Vice Chair, says it's important to introduce girls to STEM careers. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says a trade war is not inflationary. Joe Feldman, Telsey Senior Research Analyst, says Walmart is less exposed than other retailers to tensions with China. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Chief Economist, thinks the slowdown in 2018 was somewhat caused by trade tensions. Gabriel Felbermayr, Kiel Institute for the World Economy President, posits that, although a "tariff pass-through"takes time to occur, a full pass-through to the American consumers would be highly unusual. 

Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics, thinks trade tensions were the cause of China's slowdown. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, expects modest earnings growth in 2019. Emma Ross-Thomas, Bloomberg Brexit Editor, brings us a Brexit update. Mike Spence, NYU Professor, says it's confusing what the U.S. and China really want. 

Catherine Mann, Citigroup Global Chief Economist, says closing the door to trade doesn't enhance an economy. Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, analyzes the trade dispute's impact on the renminbi. Mark Lehmann, JMP Securities President, says China has more to lose than the U.S. and Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, discusses actions taken by retailers to alleviate the impact of tariffs. 

Michael Purves, Weeden Chief Global Strategist, says credit spreads have yet to back up. Stephen Roach, Yale Professor, Former Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman and Author of "Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China", says tariffs are attacks on importers and the U.S. is the importer. Keyu Jin, London School of Economics & Political Science Professor, thinks U.S. tariffs have caused a surge of nationalism in China. Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow, Author of "Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left Behind in the Global Economy", says Trump's complaints about China are legitimate but his tactics aren't. 

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the burden of tariffs will fall on U.S. consumers. David Kirkpatrick, Techonomy Media CEO & Founder, says Uber will have to rise prices soon. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed is keeping a close eye on inflation. Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley Executive Director and Head of North American Exploration & Production and Integrated Oil Research, sees nice opportunities for synergies at Anadarko. David Woo, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of Global Rates & FX Strategy, thinks different markets priced in different probabilities of a U.S.-China deal. 

Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Global Head of Economic Research, thinks it's unlikely that China or the U.S. will back off. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Managing Partner & Director of Economic Policy Research, says being against China is "extraordinarily popular" in the U.S. Steve Ricchiuto, Mizuho Securities Chief Economist & Managing Director, says trade deals never solve trade deficit problems. Haran Segram, NYU Stern Professor, says it's not advisable to compare Uber with Amazon or Facebook for its valuation.

Mary Lovely, Peterson Institute Senior Fellow & Syracuse University Professor, says U.S. businesses are negatively impacted by the tariffs imposed on China. David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff Chief Economist & Strategist, says there's way too much risk in the market. Priya Misra, TD Securities Head of Global Interest-Rates Strategy, doesn't foresee a recession in the data. Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg Iran Reporter, says the U.S. and Europe are on different sides when negotiating with Iran. 

Willem Buiter, Citi Special Economic Adviser, says the full package of sanctions on China would be in nobody's interest. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy and Operations, expects onward tariffs and confrontation after a U.S.-China deal. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, sees chances of a recession in 2020. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, Carlyle Group Advisor & Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO, says when studying European history, he learned nobody wins a trade war. 

Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist, thinks it's impossible to make an investment decision off of a tweet. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Center For Effective Public Management Director, discusses Trump's negotiating tactics with China. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, says the outlook for equity markets is still pretty positive. And Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, analyzes Amazon's challenges. 

Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, offers insights on output gap measurements. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Economics Professor, says professionalism is key in the Fed. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, thinks it's a relief that Stephen Moore's nomination was pulled. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock’s Systematic Fixed Income Team Senior Portfolio Manager, says today's jobs data continues a sequence of strong reports. Ken Langone, Author of "I Love Capitalism" & Home Depot Co-Founder, says capitalism can be brutal but it works. 

Steven Englander, Standard Chartered Bank Global Head of FX, says the Fed's inflation forecast record isn't brilliant. Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management, expects the next Fed move to be higher in rates. Danny Blanchflower, Dartmouth Professor & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says there's still quite a long way to full employment. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, expects a slowdown in the labor market. 

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, believes we will avoid an earnings recession this year. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Managing Director, says Apple will make new highs over the coming months. Shannon O'Neil, CFR Senior Fellow for Latin American Studies, highlights that the military is not fully under Maduro's control. Randy Kroszner, Univ. of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says the Fed being under political pressure is nothing new. 

Joe Quinlan, Head of CIO Market Strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, sees signs of hope in European eco. Maryhen Jimenez Morales, Oxford University Politics Lecturer, says 90% of Venezuelans want a peaceful regime change. Alex Conant, Former Marco Rubio Presidential Campaign Communications Director, says the political unrest in Venezuela is destabilizing for the region. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, brings us an update on GE. Michael Purves, Weeden & Co-Chief Global Strategist, says that solid (but not spectacular) earnings and GDP growth have become the new normal. 

Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Foreign Exchange Chief Market Strategist & Managing Partner, says the U.S. is still the driest towel in the global economy. Catherine Yeung, Fidelity Investment Director, says the Belt and Road Initiative aims at increasing China's soft power. Alastair Newton, Alavan Business Advisory Director, says the Spanish populist party is eurosceptic but not anti-European. Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, discusses the anti-vaccine movement and measles. Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson Senior Research Analyst, says no one else can follow Disney's strategy because no one else has the advantages of being Disney. 

Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, says the last decade has been "a magical time" for companies to raise capital. George Bory, Wells Fargo Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's a real conundrum in the bond market. Eileen Burbidge, Passion Capital Partner, says Twitter's success will depend on their ability to control abusive behavior on their platform. Megan Greene, Manulife Asset Management Global Chief Economist, thinks GDP data are not as positive as the headline might suggest. 

Matt Miller, Bloomberg TV & Radio Anchor, says most German politicians were against the Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank merger. Jonathan Tyce, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior European Banks Analyst, thinks it makes sense to consolidate small domestic banks. Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley Head of Fixed Income Research & Director of Quantitative Research, says dollar strength is unsustainable. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says Joe Biden will be the centrist of the 2020 race. Shira Ovide, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, thinks Facebook still has many privacy challenges ahead. And Scott Galloway, Leonard Stern School of Business Marketing Professor, discusses the tech earnings bonanza. 

Marcus Ashworth, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says the Fed is absolutely on hold. Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate and Author of "People, Power and Profits," says the government has a role in progressive capitalism. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President & Founder, says it's not all sunshine and roses in corporate earnings. Paul Sankey, Mizuho Securities Oil & Gas Analyst and Managing Director, offers his insights on Occidental's purchase of Anadarko. Paul Smith, CFA Institute President & CEO, says we need to reattach finance to a sense of purpose.