Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Simon Shares Thursday 29 September is the last day for SABMiller (JSE code: SAB). Shareholders approved the take over and it will be suspended and delisted from close on 29th. It has been listed on the JSE since 1897 Index changes; IMP into Top40, AVI into Indi25 & FFA/B into Findi. There is a chart floating around of Lehman Brothers just before they hit the wall and one of Deutsche Bank over laid on each other. Nice to look at but in no way telling us anything worth being told. Deutsche Bank is the largest German bank, fourth largest European bank, and 11th largest bank in the world with assets of over $1.9 trillion – equal to half the size of the German economy. (source Sparkfin.com) Remgro (JSE code: REM) is doing another rights issue at R192.50, a decent discount to the current price of some R240. That said the book value of Remgro in the most recent results was R153.17 (intrinsic value was R306.44). MTN, more woes in Nigerian. I remain a happy ex-shareholder. What happens to bonds and bond ETFs

Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan Reviewing small cap results with Keith McLachlan Simon Shares Wells Fargo is the sort of stock that if I owned it, I would sell it as management totally failed and refuse to accept any blame. There is a theory that equal weight ETFs have higher costs because they have to rebalance every stock every quarter. But checking the STXIND over the last four quarters. Twice every stock changed weight and twice only two stocks did not change weightings. Harmony (JSE code: HAR) buys the half of the Hidden Valley mine in Papua New Guinea for US$1! PPC (JSE code: PPC) rights offer was 92% taken up but with excess allocation requests of another 509%. Some serious big hitters thinking this a great deal. Sasfin (JSE code: SFN) nonperforming loans more than doubled. They operate in the small-and medium-sized enterprises so it is a telling number. The economy is seriously struggling and while I have seen some economists upgrading GDP expectations for 2016, none have us at

Reviewing results Simon Shares Feedback on making sense of SENS AVI (JSE code: AVI) results show good numbers in a tough market. People tend to look to Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) or TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) but this is the real gem in the space with a dividend yield of 4%. Holdsport (JSE code: HSP) trading update shows increased comparable sales growth, but after inflation they're going backwards. I never been a fan of this business albeit the share is up some 100% in the last five years, around 15% a year which is nice, but average? But then add a chunky dividend that currently yields 5%, can they hold the dividend or even increase it? I suspect they can but I still not interested. Clover (JSE code: CLR) were good considering the tough times with drought yet they had an over supply of milk? I used to own this stock but they weren't growing and expanding as I had expected so I exited. Sasol (JSE code: SOL) results came in as expected albeit with help from translations gains (FX moving in their favour) and a

Simon Shares Local GDP came in better then expected and importantly positive, so no technical recession. Manufacturing and mining were the strong sectors but we need a lot more very strong quarters to get out of the bad spot we find ourselves in and a down grade is still very much on the cards in December. Discovery (JSE code: DSY) has so many moving parts but for me the key is Vitality is now in 14 markets around the world. I remain a happy shareholder albeit they've done very little over the last year or so. We have a lot of shopping malls in South Africa, b some reports more per capita than any other country. Hyprop (JSE code: HYP) is by far the best of the bunch with regard local malls as they own high traffic top end malls. Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) seems to have lost the mantle. They have now had three reporting seasons over the last year and all disappointed. Is it just bad buying and the weather? I suspect they're seriously struggling under the weight on new competition from the likes of H&M and C

Questions, questions, questions Simon Shares Metrofile (JSE code: MFL) results saw HEPS +4.6% (very modest) and the full year dividend 42.9% putting it on a dividend yield of some 6%. Wowness and why I own the stock, for the dividend. PPC nil paid letters (NPLs) started trading yesterday as PPCN. People are asking me what to do with them and I am sticking to my story. Shorter term after they convert we may get a bounce, longer term PPC has real risks and I would not want to be a holder. So short answer is sell. Bidvest (JSE code: BVT) results were weak with single digit HEPS growth of 2.5% while Bidcorp (JSE code: BID) had great HEPS growth. We know the story and why they split, one local one offshore. Nigerian GDP stays negative and country is now in a technical recession. More tough times for local companies operating in that market. I am being asked if I am selling the gold stocks in the momentum portfolio? The answer is no, it is a rules based system and we follow the rules. GIVRES has done an amazing 99

Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Shares More finance minister concerns and more rand weakness. The bigger picture is you have to have a bigger picture investment view otherwise events like this will hurt. In the last of this three part series if you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Warren Ingram and Craig Gradidge for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online and follow up in on Monday at 1pm. Tonight in Durban we have a JSE Power Hour - 9.97562 Possible Pitfalls in Investment Planning Our home ownership is the new broke podcast is still generating lots of buzz. Kristia has been on leave so we reward a bunch of Fat Wallet Shows, we will revisit the topic Monday week (5 September). Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Brown - Founder of JustOneLap.com Ridwaan Moolla - ABSA, Head of Digital Enablement in Wealth and Investments Charles Savage – Purple Group, Group CEO Kevin Algeo – IG, Head of IG Greg Kangleas - Vunani Private Client

Where to for the Rand? Simon Shares The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq all closed at all time highs for the first time since December 1999. Dog stocks, don't mix price and fundamentals. I been buying PTXTEN after exiting my STXDIV and not being blown away by DIVTRX. If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Nerina Visser & Keith McLachlan for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online. Garth MacKenzie TradersCorner.co.za Where too for the rand? We've seen it stronger this year after a blow out late last year and into January. Garth offers a technical view and below is the long term monthly chart of USD/ZAR. Long term monthly USD/ZAR chart We Get Mail Fouche Would there be any merit in the argument that Japan is 20 years ahead of "us" (USA Europe world markets that are applying QE) and we could be looking at similar years of sideways movement? Aaron I have an aunt who wants to start saving R10k p/m for the next 12 months. What can you advise as the most suitabl

Simon Shares US mattresses with Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH)? Paying more than double the last traded price? MTN looks all ugly. Forget the fine, forget over a billion Rands in associated costs. Nigerian and South African markets look weak and I still say they need to transition into being a data utility. That said there's a nice trade from around R122 - R140. SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) leaving the JSE on 11 October (most likely) after listing on the JSE in 1897 (just two years after being founded and a decade after the JSE was founded). SAB has been one of the key drivers of the Indi25 index over the last decade (SAB +472%, All Share +154%). They're going to leave a gapping hole. If you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask the Just One Lap team for their picks. The Fat Wallet Show goes where few are brave enough to trend. Renting vs. buying, what does the maths say? Keith McLachlan from Alpha Wealth Finding a local Berkshire Hathaway? Simon answered a listener questions suggesting that maybe Conduit Capit

Short zombie stocks Simon Shares Did you sell your dogs? Keith McLachlan commented on Conduit Capital and it's not all wannabe Berkshire Hathaway. Second session in the first Trading Master Class with IG was on Tuesday. We're looking at a CFD trading plan and this session went live on the IG platform looking for stocks and three buys popped up; Barclays Africa Group (JSE code: BGA), PSG & Woolies (JSE code: WHL). The Fat Wallet Show goes back to bonds because last time we started complicated which is not what Fat Wallets are about. Small is the new big says Trader Petri and we agree 100%. Short the zombie stocks We Get Mail Johan I would appreciate it very much if you could tell me where one would declare CFD trading outcomes on the SARS form. Have just spent 45 minutes on the phone to SARS help without making any progress. Sarah What about Bitcoin as an investment? Pipcoin is a scam. 123 Download the audio file here or subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes

Sell the dogs (sorry dogs) Simon Shares Ellies (JSE code: ELI) results were as ugly as expected and the company is being kept alive by their bankers at Standard Bank. Megatron is worthless after buying it for R180million in 2008 and spending some half billion keeping it afloat. A few weeks ago in FinWeek I said sell ELI at around 60c and I would not be a buyer now. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results were not bad. They have got their cost down to $34/tonne from closer to $55 previously. It does mean less production to get the lower costs and the market is still in massive over supply but they at least now positioned to (likely) survive. SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) got an extra pound with the offering being revised to GBP45 but some minority shareholders are still not happy as the pound has weakened. One can hardly blame SAB or AB Inbev for that but the minority shareholders need 25% to block the deal and that's very unlikely. Kristia looks at ETF costs in her blog this week. The Fat Wallet Show takes Magnus Heystek

Private equity coming to the JSE Simon Shares So Trump is real and is now officially the Republican nomination for the US presidency. The point is he can win it and then the question is what will markets do? Likely pretty much like what happened after Brexit, initial panic and then they will move on. The first IG Master Class kicked off on Tuesday with a complete CFD share trading system. Nice simple and practical with a follow up webcast on 2 August at 1pm. I have added a live link to prices I am prepared to pay for my 'till death do us part portfolio', the link is here. Thursday evening we're at the JSE for a Power Hour, Investors are normal, not rational. Kristia reviews another Top40 ETF, the Ashburton Top40 (JSE code: ASHT40). Stuart MacKenzie (CEO Ethos Pvt Equity) and Peter Hayward-Butt (CEO Ethos Capital) Ethos Capital (JSE code: EPE) will be listing on the JSE in August via a private placement. Ethos is a Private Equity investment vehicle that offers a different investment asset class for patient i

Simon Shares A lot of people worried abut DBXWD post Brexit, but the issue is it is global so the UK makes up only about 8% while EU is about 13%. I hold the ETF and continue to buy every month. The Just One La team has a monster busy week next week. Join us at; Trading Master Class: Designing a trading system from scratch (Tue 19th) Classic FM making wealth simple  (Wed 20th) JSE Power Hour: Investors are normal, not rational  (Thu 21st) Kristia asks which ETF? Drikus Combrink - Capicraft Investment Partners Locally earnings season has come to an end and markets are at or near all time highs. Are these valuations justified by the earnings we've seen? Good, bad, ugly and any stand outs. Drikus touches on some concerns (SABMiller & Richemont) and suggests really focusing on the core numbers rather than top line numbers that could be skewed by currency moves, mergers or new stores. His major concern remains QE and how that unravels. We Get Mail Ronnie What is the recommended amount to start with inv

Stock Broker vs. FSP Stock Broker vs. FSP Simon Shares So Brexit is now a thing, or is it? Mostly it is confusion. Money Expo this Friday and Saturday. My 'till death do us part' portfolio webcast in next week Thursday at 8pm. Satrix Indi has been a star ETF with the best returns over 10 years at over 400%. Lazy System is long Indi25 and MidCap. Charles Savage, CEO Purple Capital / Easy Equities What's the difference between a traditional stock broker and a Financial Services provider (FSP)? Is a FSP risky and do I really own the shares? These are popular concerns so we got Charles on the line to address the issues. We also briefly touched on their new baskets they launched last month.   JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views o

Simon's till death us part portfolio Simon Shares In last weeks show I covered Porter's Five Forces for selecting awesome shares worthy of investing in. This week I delve into my personal 'til death do us part' portfolio explaining why I hold each share. In two weeks (13 July, book here) we'll have a webcast where you can interrogate my selection and also propose shares of your own for inclusion into a 'til death do us part' portfolio. At the time of recording my portfolio is as below (Find my consistently updated portfolio here) BHPBilliton (JSE code: BIL) Capitec (JSE code: CPI) Citylodge (JSE code: CLH) Discovery (JSE code: DSY) Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) Metrofile (JSE code: MFL) Richemont (JSE code: CFR) Sasol (JSE code: SOL) Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) Woolies (JSE code: WHL) === JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed i

Porter's Five Forces Finding awesome stocks to invest in Simon Shares I am traveling and then on leave, so this week I look at Porter's Five Forces and in next weeks podcast I follow this up by running my 'death do us part' portfolio of stocks through the process. Then two weeks after that (13 July 8pm) we'll do a live webcast whereby you can ask questions about my portfolio and any stocks you may consider worthy of a 'death do us part' portfolio (my portfolio is always published live here). Book for the webcast here. Porter's Five Forces Competitive rivalry within an industry Threat of substitute products Threat of new entrants Bargaining power of customers Bargaining power of suppliers I add; Buy winning stocks in winning sectors Legislative risk You'll find a review of Porter's Five Forces here and I also include it in the Boot Camp video on Fundamentals and Technicals in which I include examples from local stocks. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an indep

Hedge funds for everybody Hedge funds for everybody Simon Shares MTN have concluded the Nigerian fine at around a third of the initially proposed fine. A good deal for the company but they should never have found themsleves in the position in the first place an I still do not like management and am not a buyer. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) are finally getting rid of their 35-year pyramid structure that key control of the company in the Ackerman hands even though they only held c26% of the shares. But they are retaining control via special unlisted B shares, so nothing changes and the company remains under the control of a family who frankly have conceded the title of retail to Shoprite (JSE code: SHP). Brexit fears are running wild, ignore it. It's just short term noise. Big picture it matters not one way or the other, it just hysteria right now that will reach deafening levels by the time they vote next Thursday. Jean Pierre Verster portfolio manager Fairtree Capital The hedge fund industry in South Afr

Simon Shares New logo for JSE Direct to bring it inline with the new Just One Lap branding. S&P is negative but not junk, Fitch says we stable, GDP says we half way to a recession. GIVISA, the cheapest ETF on the JSE. But is it any good? Kristia goes on a nerdy bender digging into the details. Keith McLachlan on building a small cap portfolio. The Just One Lap team is starting to do more Periscope videos; follow us all at; DeeOnMoneyZA TraderPetri KristiaVH SimonPB Zack Bezuidenhout S&P Dow Jones Indices We chat indices, costs, new developments and smart beta. Zack also has a great analogy about the financial services fee structure and the medical industry that really highlights the wrongs in the financial services industry. We Get Mail Lauren What about the Swix index for investing? Rudolph A question, are you still happy with your decision to sell all your BATS shares, after a 40% return the past year? Philip Regarding the debate of investing in the US or worldwide, why not invest in th

Can DIY investing beat the market? Simon Shares PPC in real trouble. Management have let the company down by not spending up capex locally, not hedging their USD debt and now they need a massive rights issue. Will they survive? Are local markets pricing in a downgrade? Nobody knows either what Standard & Poors will say or what the market is or is not pricing in. We have a new podcast going live every week, The Fat Wallet Show. In it Just One Lap CEO Kristia van Heerden, picks a topic and asks questions until she gets an answer. She kicked off with structured products. Momentum portfolio update for the quarter ending May 2016 is here, life time returns below. Momentum portfolio life time returns We Get Mail Daniel Now if research shows that the percentage of fund managers that outperform the index over a 1, 3, 5+ year period get smaller and smaller then, what chance do we as retail investors have of: A) outperforming a fund manager (with CFA's, CA's, research teams) when stock picking; and B) out

A simple diverse ETF portfolio Simon Shares Balwin (JSE code: BWN) knocked their results out of the park, but my bigger picture concerns remain. Standard & Poors down grade or not is next Friday. I did a Twitter poll that came in split by 1 vote. So nobody knows. Twitter poll on SP downgrade Complexity of costs. Come industry make it simple. Mining: Returning to the mean? Peter Major did an excellent JSE Power Hour for us, the video is here. On the ETF blog this week we look at the Pref shares ETF (JSE code: PREFTX). 2 June at 5.30pm,Keith McLachlan on building a small and mid cap portfolio the right way. Book here. Nerina Visser, director at ETFsa.co.za Which ETF if you buying for; R300 / month (CTOP50) R1000 / month (CTOP50, DBXWD & ASHINF) Large lump sum into a TFSA (CTOP50, DBXWD, ASHINF & PTXTEN) We also chatted about costs, are we missing any ETFs as an industry and how to respond to the potential downgrade from Standard and Poors.  JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the

Doing risk right A very long show this week (over an hour), but totally worth every second of listening. Last week I reflected on the Sanlam i3 Summit I attend and his week I speak with Roland Rousseau (Head of Barclays Risk Strategy Group) on his presentation at the conference. Roland is looking at this whole idea of asset or fund manager being outdated and suggesting we rather need risk managers. He has great insights and ideas and this wide ranging conversation on risk has got me thinking a lot more about a lot of things. Real learning, I love it. Simon JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.