Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Basil Read (JSE code: BSR) has filed for business rescue and nobody should be surprised. Blaming government and labour is also weak, construction is a weak industry and only really boomed in the lead up to the world cup in 2010 (not forgetting the price fixing). Of concern was that the stock was not suspended until Monday lunch time and it turns out it a settlement issue. Apparently "Someone bought BSR at 1c in on Friday now it turns out the seller does not have the stock. JSE trying to reverse." Liberty (JSE code: LBH) got hacked. Exact details are scarce as I record, the company is saying it was "largely emails and possible attachments" and that no clients have lost money. Well maybe not yet. But you email all sorts of personally stuff to a long-term insurer; bank details, residential address, medical, etc. That frankly puts clients at risk. Bigger picture is that our future unfortunately includes us being hacked sooner or later.

Simon Shares Stor-age (JSE code: SSS) results were totally solid and in a very niche property space that is doing very well. When they listed a few people recommended them to me and I wasn't convinced. Well I was wrong. Sasol* (JSE code: SOL) was one of the first stocks I ever bought and my longest holding in my 'til death do us part' portfolio having first bought it around 1994. A few years ago I gave serious thought to exiting, but held on albeit deciding not to add any more to my portfolio. But I have been thinking and digging and frankly it is a change company and looking good. The Lake Charles project has been a mess in terms of cost over runs, but it is now nearing completion and that means two important points. Firstly, no more spend on the development and secondly in a few years the profits will start to flow from the project (even if they're not as great as promised). So I am starting to buy again, however my usual pricing methodology doesn't work here for two reasons. Massively cyclical always break

123 Download the audio file here Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Wildest story of the year. Imbalie (JSE code: ILE) is ditching beauty to become a miner via a reverse listing! Local GDP for Q1 2018 was a shocker at -2.2%. Expected was -0.5% and the number is usually shifted higher over time, but wowzer. That all said, this was mostly driven by agriculture and frankly turning a country around is a slow process. Delta Properties (JSE code: DLT) has me perplexed. On a dividend yield of around 15% and trading at around 30% discount to net asset value (NAV) it seems a screaming buy - but that assumes the market is wrong and I never want to be the one telling the market that. They mostly have government as a tenant and a lot of their leases are on a month-to-month basis. But government isn't going to suddenly move out but they may put pressure on rent increases. The company says there is a process recently put in place

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. OUTstanding money: Saving and investing are not the same How to be financially independent with Patrick McKay Finding dividend superstars Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: How to identify quality stocks How to choose a stock broker First off understand the difference between a stock broker and an FSP. The former is an exchange member and gets protection and regulations from the exchange. An FSP is regulated by the FSCA (formerly the FSB) interview with Charles Savage on how this works.  It is very important that they are registered with a regulatory body. Even an offshore regulatory body is fine, but only if it is in a country in which you trust the laws. Avoid fly-by-nights registered in some second rate dodge country. Also understand potential fees. Brokerage. What you pay when you transact, also check if there is a minimum brokerage rate. Admin fee charged monthly, quarterly or annually

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares I am traveling again this week so recording on Monday. Consolidated Infrastructure Group (JSE code: CIL) seems to have a life line albeit existing shareholders will be diluted by some 50%. With the issue at 400c and the share below that price no need to follow your rights, just buy in the open market if you want. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: How to profit from SA mining JSE Power Hour: How to identify quality stocks Make trading asymmetrical I have spoken often before about how one of the huge benefits of investing is that a diversified portfolio is asymmetrical. You may have held some horrid share and lost 100% of its value. But 100% is the most you can lose and your winners can exceed 100%. In fact a true long-term portfolio will most definitely have many +100% winners so if you do get caught in a 100% loser - you're fine. The important point is that you need to be diverse and have more than one share and ideally a core o

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Would you buy it again? Would you buy that share today if you didn't already own it? If not, why not? I'm talking about those dog shares again because we all have them. This week I pose a simple question to solve the problem. Sometimes tech fails. This was one of those weeks, so a short show. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares So a friend has a business that has been beset by fraud and is now bankrupt and is trying to find some new investors. They have no financial statements to show you and no real idea how bankrupt the company is or how bad the fraud was. Do you invest? So why scramble for busted JSE stocks? Thanks to Kristia van Heerden for the analogy. Libstar (JSE code: LBR) has listed on the JSE. The listing price was right at the bottom of the range at 1250c and opening trade was around 1200c and expensive. Historic PE is apparently around 26x and sub 20x is the maximum to pay, so 900c - 950c. Personally I am not looking to buy. Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) publish their first results and pay a dividend. The dividend is odd as they on a buying spree so why pay out cash? R1,7bn cash = about third market cap, HEPS 30c so on non cash market cap = PE of some 12x which is fair (compared to some it fran

  Simon Shares Apple (Nasdaq code: AAPL) results show a maturing company as iPhone sales have decidedly slow. But they're far from down and out with app store sales, accessories etc. doing great and they still have a monster cash pile. Rand under serious pressure trading out at R12.60/US$ after R11.50/US$ in late February. This is in large part due to US$ strength and it does not make me panic and change my long-term view of Rand strength. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) below 200c. In the 6 years to 2018, Barclays (LSE code: BARC) paid out £35.6billion for litigation, misconduct charges, bank levies, losses from asset sales etc. This is £1billion more than operating profit during the period! Pembury (JSE code: PEM) has been suspended for late results as they struggle with some IFRS issues. I like the retirement idea, but the rush to list as a schools company was concerning and the share has been under pressure. Further the inability to publish what must be fairly simple results is more concern. Let them prove the

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Libstar listing is proceeding and I am not taking part. I do think the market will love it but Google the private equity sellers (Abraaj) lots bad happening their and the company has declared a R800million pre listing dividend - while raising R1.5billion? Consol has pulled their JSE listing citing "challenging market conditions". Have the market conditions really changed that much in the last few weeks or was the market just not excited by the listing? Auditing - it's complicated The local auditing profession is having a tough time of it with the Auditor General (Thembekile Makwetu) commenting on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield he said that that the professions reputation was "in the gutter". I wanted to understand what we as investor really can expect from an auditor? Are they to blame for Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) and other recent collapses or is that beyond their scope? Keit

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares EOH (JSE code: EOH) under pressure again trading at 5 year lows. The company claims it is because of false allegations published on some news website. CPI in March was 3.8%, a great number but April has both VAT and petrol tax increases so we may have seen a low in CPI for a while. Pallinghurst (JSE code: PGL) issue audited results but they use an auditor not accredited by the JSE so they don't count. Mediclinic (JSE code: MEI) issued a solid trading update and the share is responding (they also got upgraded by Barclays over the weekend). I now expect the usual flurry of emails abut how I am missing out by not investing in healthcare stocks. I am indeed, but I am also missing out on the other 450 stocks I do not own. The stock market is no place for FOMO - it'll kill you. Finding winning SA Inc. stocks. Tax-free and saving for your child. Price leads narrative I heard this on a podcast I listen to, or maybe somebody tweeted it. Hugely important. Those commenting o

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares SARS announces tax must be paid on Bitcoin profits - why is anybody surprised? Sagarmatha (JSE code: SGT) listing on Friday, if they tick all the boxes. Some saying they should not be allowed to list but this fails to understand the role the JSE plays. They are regulatory gate keepers, not quality of profitability gate keepers. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) now under 300c at 226c, well below late 1998 listing - all-time-low and the bad news just continues to drip out. ETFs and the cost of the spread. Living vs guaranteed annuities. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing in the best of SA Inc. Liquidity risk Homechoice (JSE code: HIL) keeps on putting out great results and cash generation but has almost zero liquidity (30 trades since 6 March and currently no offers to sell on market with last trade at 4700c and buyers at 1226c! This makes it uninvestable in my world as we'd essentially be buying into a quasi private equity arrangement as exiting would be almost

If you secretly hate us but haven’t been able to find a different source of financial information, I have some great news! I found a Freakonomics Radio episode that summed up exactly the principles we champion on this show. In this episode, Simon and I take the financial literacy survey. It’s only three questions, but understanding their answers will enable you to make great financial decisions. If this sounds vaguely familiar, you might be thinking of this podcast we did last year. Here are the questions: Suppose you have R100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2% per year. After 5 years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow? More than R102 Exactly R102 Less than R102 Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 5% per year and inflation was 6% per year. After one year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account? More than today. Exactly the same as today. Less than today. Do you think the following statement

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares I mentioned last week it had been a negative first quarter for the Top40 and it just continues weaker with the current theory being trade wars. Looking at the charts of the main indices it looks ugly and we're now some 15% off the all-time highs of November. A proper correction that may still go lower and my sense is we're close to the end of the sell off. I also asked last week how we could select winning fund managers. The answer I got back was mostly that you can't. A few gave very detailed answers mostly revolving around finding the best managers - but scant details on how we spotted these quality managers. Total return ETFs and CGT. Complicated. Win a book with The Fat Wallet Show. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: Investing in the best of SA Inc.  Spot the losers Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) announces that their property portfolio is only worth half what they thought. Boom there goes another R16billion. I cautioned when this story broke that bad news would b

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares Back from holiday and with lots of ideas around what you do and don't like for JSE Direct. That said main comment was not to really change except maybe some experts occasionally on broad topics. Markets falling and Top40 is down some 8% for the year so far. End of the world? Not likely. As always, traders know and obey your stops. Investors know your stocks and entry points. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) is under R3k and off some 30% since the November highs and is in large part why our market is under water as it's the largest stock by a mile in the indices. MPC cut repo rate by 0.25%, 4 members voted for the cut and three for no change. No discussion of a 0.5% cut. Interestingly the VAT increase effective on Sunday is expected to temporarily add 0.6% to inflation. Moodys kept us out of junk and improved our outlook to stable from negative. Anchor group (JSE code: ACG) results were bleak but seemingly the bad news is now behind them and the share is responding well, up s

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” 300 shows, I haven't been making a fuss because it just feels old, very old. Add to that almost three years as a live radio show on Classic FM, starting from 8 July 2008. It's almost ten years of a weekly (albeit changing) show. We started life focusing outside the Top40 as the other shows seldom ever did anything in the small and mid cap space - then everybody did. So we have evolved over time. The question is where to next? Another ten years (truthfully that scares me). Send me your ideas on what we should or should not be doing. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares 2017 GDP was 1.3%, better than the expected 1% and hopefully means that the treasury 2020 GDP expectation of 2.1% is wildly low. Bleak trading update from Sasfin (JSE code: SFN). But still trading at tangible net asset value (TNAV) levels. MMI drop their dividend in favour of share buy backs and drops cover from 1.5x-1.7x to 2.5x. Considering the dividend yield was some 6% and a good reason to hold this is a major change. Now sure a share buy back is in theory share holder value enhancing and tax efficient but it is also not hard cash in ones hand. Making sense of CGT tax. New Stanlib tech ETF. Upcoming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (JHB and webcast) JSE Power Hour: Small cap stock picks with Anthony Clark  Fallen angels (devils?) When a share is hit by scandal it can take ages to recovery as investors shy away from the stock. Some like Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) will never recover due to the seemingly rampant fraud hat happened. Others like EOH may but wil

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs” Simon Shares The new cabinet is of course a compromise, that's the nature of our political system. But the important departments are markedly better hands (SOEs, treasury & mining). New tax-free year kicks off today. R33,000 per year and transfer are now also possible. Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) Leverage your investment portfolio Borrowing money to increase your portfolio is something most investors ponder at some point, but two questions come up. How and what are the risks? The theory is easy, over the long-term equity markets do better than the cost of borrowing, but there is more to leverage then just that. So here are some options, with the risks involved. Derivatives such as CFDs; Easy enough. But costs and margin calls are real issues. Keep it small. Home loan Clean and simple if you can afford the repayments remembering that when markets collapse interest rates typically rise. Make sure you can make the repayments

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs”  Simon Shares Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were top notch and complicated as they always are. I own this stock as the business model really works, but as I have mentioned before the complexity adds risk. Risk I am happy with as most stocks I own have real simple business models. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results show HEPS down 6%. But look at value being traded these days. R25billion a day has become a regular feature, last year average was around R15billion. That equals lots of extra revenue in this financial year. Mining charter back to the drawing board. Good for local miners (of which we have very few). January CPI dropped to 4.4%, interest cuts coming to a prime rate near you? But budget may add to inflation (fuel being the one, not directly but will increase transport costs so food inflation). Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) * I Hold ungeared positions #Budget2018 Firstly I think Cyril Ramaphosa may have played it real smart by

Simon Shares Market continues to wait for president Zuma to go. It is taking time but ejecting a leader usually does take time and markets are patient and way more interested in what is happen in the US with inflation data out after I have recorded this podcast. This will likely be the driver for now. When Zuma eventually goes, and he will go, then market can move on that info. It is messy (as politics usually is) but it just a matter of when, not if. Oceana (JSE code: OCE) CEO quits to buy their boats? Resilient, Nepi Rockcastle, ForstressB & Greenbay (JSE codes: RES, NRP, FFB & GRB) continue to flounder after 36One report surfaces. Was it leaked? Does that matter? Resilient have responded via SENS and a conference call and a FAQ - now the market gets to vote. http://resilient.co.za/faq.htm New African property ETF. RA, pension or provident fund by Carina Jooste. Up-coming events JSE Power Hour: Kick off 2018 with ETFs and tax-free investing Avoid the big losers or risk your portfolio A -60% r

Simon Shares Dual CEOs at Investec (JSE codes: INL / INP)? Market sells off and rebounds (a bit) and we're in correction territory (down 10%). The falling property stocks of Resilient, Nepi Rockcastle, ForstressB & Greenbay (JSE codes: RES, NRP, FFB & GRB) continue to trade down at the low levels they hit when Viceroy concerns initially hit the market in early January. Capitec* still under fire from Viceroy and share likely to be subdued for a while. Brimstone (JSE code: BRN) has sold down their stakes in both Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) and Life Healthcare (JSE code: LHC). Now what will they do with the R750million cash? Stress free tax year Up-coming events * I hold ungeared positions. Section 12J (S12J) Introduced in 2009 this enables a tax payer to invest into a startup (via the S12J fund, Section 12J Venture Capital Companies (VCC)) and claim it as a deduction on their tax return effectively reducing ones income by the amount invested. An important point is that the investment has to be held f