Carnegie Council Audio Podcast

China's economy has grown exponentially over the last four decades, but George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, sees four traps that could derail its continued ascent: rising debt, the struggle to keep its currency stable, aging demographics, and the challenges of changing from a low-income economy to a complex middle-income one. Will Xi Jinping be open to reform? What could be the effects of lingering U.S.-China trade tensions?

In the second podcast in The Crack-Up series, which looks at how 1919 shaped the modern world, historian Ted Widmer talks to Harvard's Professor Lisa McGirr about Prohibition's roots in anti-immigrant sentiment and its enforcement, in some cases, by the Ku Klux Klan. Plus, they discuss the Eighteenth Amendment's connections to World War I and the rise of the modern American state.

Historian Ted Widmer discusses his new Carnegie Council podcast series "The Crack-Up" and how 1919 has shaped the modern world. He and host Alex Woodson speak about parallels to 2019, Woodrow Wilson and the League of Nations, Babe Ruth, the early days of Hollywood, and populism in Europe in the aftermath of World War I. Don't miss a new "Crack-Up" tomorrow with Harvard historian Lisa McGirr on prohibition and the American state.

If populism is a reaction to a globalism that is viewed as unresponsive to the needs of citizens, can populism sustain any version of globalization? Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer and Tom Nichols of the U. S. Naval War College discuss and debate this important question and much more.

The wide array of global issues--more than 90 percent of them--that Eurasia Group follows are now headed in the wrong direction in 2019. Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer break down those risks--from U.S.-China relations and cyberwar to European populism and American institutions--and their ethical implications with Carnegie Council's Devin Stewart for their eleventh annual discussion of the year's coming top risks.

From the U.S. operation against Iran's nuclear enrichment plant, to Chinese theft of personal data, North Korea's financially motivated attacks on American companies, or Russia's interference in the 2016 election, cyberweapons have become the weapon of choice for democracies, dictators, and terrorists. "New York Times" national security correspondent David Sanger explains how and why cyberattacks are now the number one security threat.

Now based in California, Mark Payumo previously served as a Philippine Army Special Forces officer. Reflecting on his recent Carnegie Council site visit to Manila to investigate climate change and the role of the defense establishment, he concludes that securitizing climate change--i.e. having the military involved, both in adaptation and mitigation--is a decided advantage for the community.

National security expert and U.S. Army veteran Asha Castleberry makes sense of a busy and seemingly chaotic time for the Department of Defense in the wake of Secretary Mattis' departure. What should we think about Trump's plans in Syria and Afghanistan? How is the U.S. planning to counter China in Africa? And has John Bolton actually been a moderating influence?

This podcast is part of "The Crack-Up," a special series about the events of 1919, a year that in many ways shaped the 20th century and the modern world. In this episode, host Ted Widmer speaks with fellow historian Patty O'Toole about her "New York Times" article on Teddy Roosevelt, who died 100 years ago this week. Why was health care reform so important to him? What did he think about nationalism? How would TR fit in with the modern GOP?

Gold leaf tattoos that would act as a screen for our devices, chips implanted in our brains--these are some of the worrying technologies under development with no thought of the consequences to our minds and bodies, says crisis management expert Ian Mitroff. He blames the "technological mindset" that believes that technology will solve every problem. We need technologists, but we also need ethicists and we need to have crisis plans in place.

Waleed Alhariri, U.S. director of the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, discusses major developments in the Yemen conflict, which remains the world's worst humanitarian crisis. With renewed momentum at the UN and in U.S. Congress, an increased international focus on the war after the Jamal Khashoggi murder, and a fragile ceasefire in Hudaydah, Yemen's biggest port, Alhariri is "carefully optimistic" that conditions could improve in the coming months.

Elana Beiser of the Committee to Protect Journalists discusses the latest CPJ report, which finds that for the third year in a row, 251 or more journalists are jailed around the world, suggesting the authoritarian approach to critical news coverage is more than a temporary spike. Also for the third year running, Turkey, China, and Egypt were responsible for about half of those imprisoned, with Turkey remaining the world's worst jailer.

Pacific Delegates Austin McKinney and Chetan Pedada both have military backgrounds and technology expertise. They discuss ways in which machine-learning and military cooperation could help the Philippines cope with climate change and natural disasters and also reflect on the human impact that climate change is already having on these islands and how Filipinos are working together to respond.

Yoko Okura of Mercy Corps discusses her recent visit to Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh, the site of a camp for 1 million Rohingya refugees. She learned every day, that 700 tons of trees--four football fields--are being cut down for firewood and construction, bringing an increased risk of landslides and floods. She also reflects on her visit to Manila with Carnegie Council and the advantages of traveling with a group from different disciplines.

There are few, if any, who understand the Korean Peninsula situation better than Ambassador Hill. He served as U.S. ambassador to South Korea and assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, and was head of the U.S. delegation to the 2005 six-party talks aimed at resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis. In this wise and witty talk he explains where we are today, how we got here, and where we're likely to go in the future.

Carnegie Council Senior Fellow Nikolas Gvosdev and host Alex Woodson discuss the state of foreign policy after the midterm elections. How can newcomers like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have a tangible effect in Washington? Will Democrats be able to unite behind a platform? Plus, they look ahead to 2020 and speak about Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Nikki Haley and how American values will play into the future of international relations.

"You saw the Russians start to pay attention to social media, in particular after Obama's election, because the way that he was elected was new to them. They always watch our elections very closely. So you see them toying around in this whole space of the sphere of information, the use of information as a tool of political warfare, developing new tools." Molly McKew delves into Russian disinformation campaigns in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Artificial Intelligence's potential for doing good and creating benefits is almost boundless, but equally there is a potential for doing great harm. This panel discusses the findings of a comprehensive three-year project at The Hastings Center, which encompassed safety procedures, engineering approaches, and legal and ethical oversight.

Historian and Carnegie Council Senior Fellow Ted Widmer looks back to the end of the First World War, and the upheaval that followed it in Europe and the U.S., and forward to a new stage in the Trump presidency. Plus, he and host Alex Woodson discuss ways to improve American democracy and what can be learned from the legacy of President George H. W. Bush.

"Were we a business, were we a mission, were we a public service, or were we a profit center?" Alan Rusbridger, former editor-in-chief of "The Guardian," grapples with the questions facing all newspapers in this new age where people "communicate horizontally" rather than via the old, vertical "tablet of stone model." He explains how "The Guardian" has not only survived but prospered and has surprisingly positive things to say about new media.