Squawk Box Europe Express

No more cash…President Trump withdraws U.S. funding of the World Health Organisation, slamming the agency for fundamental failures in tackling the global Coronavirus pandemic and for having a pro-Chinese agenda. In response, Germany’s foreign minister says strengthening the WHO is the best investment. The IMF warns of the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but its chief economist tells CNBC that the global economy remains in far better shape to weather the storm than it did in the 1930s. In corporate news, bad-loan provisioning has weighed heavily on profits at U.S. lenders JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon believes the U.S. economy won’t fully reopen until the summer. Plus, a $25bn aid package is agreed to help the U.S. aviation sector after the Coronavirus outbreak cripples the travel industry.  

China trade…March import and export figures fall by far less than expected despite the impact of the pandemic shutdown. U.S. bank stocks slumped Monday – their first negative session in five days – with investors eagerly awaiting to see the impact of Coronavirus ahead of their Q1 results. The death toll from the virus in the UK tops 11,000 and there are fears that the country could be the worst affected in Europe. However France, Spain and Germany have begun to gradually consider their exit strategies from lockdown.

Stocks end the week in the green, with the Dow and S&P 500 gaining more than 10 per cent during the period. The Dow crossed the 23,000-point mark late in the session following news that Democrat Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has decided to drop out of the race clearing the way for Joe Biden. The latest FOMC minutes show Fed officials believe the U.S. economic outlook is ‘profoundly uncertain’ and plan to keep rates near zero until the Coronavirus impact is weathered. Crude prices jump on hopes of an Opec+ agreement on output cuts on Thursday. In corporate news, Disney is enjoying a jump of 50m subscribers to its streaming service as a direct effect of the outbreak while coffee giant Starbucks is warning it will see a 50 per cent slump in Q2 earnings. Across Europe, countries are bracing for lockdown extensions as health officials say the peak of the virus has not yet been reached.

Trump slams WHO…President Trump threatens to withhold funding and criticises the World Health Organisation for its response to the Coronavirus, saying the agency is too China-centric. France becomes the fourth country to record more than 10,000 deaths from the pandemic with Parisian authorities intensifying the lockdown by banning citizens from all daytime outdoor exercise. In the UK fatalities continue to accelerate but health officials believe there are signs that the virus spread is slowing. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s condition is described as stable following a second night in intensive care. After an all-night virtual conference euro zone finance ministers fail to reach agreement on the exact rescue measures of a virus rescue package for the bloc. And in energy news, crude rallies on hopes of an Opec+ output cut deal but the U.S. insists it won’t participate.  

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital, after his Coronavirus symptoms worsen. Foreign minister Dominic Raab has stepped in to deputise. The Dow Jones rallied by 1,600 points on Monday with the retail sector leading the way following reports that infection numbers in the most stricken U.S. states have begun to level off. There are reports that Opec+ could agree on an output cut if the U.S. also slashes production. Euro zone finance ministers meet to discuss the EU’s financial rescue strategy but there are concerns that disagreement over Coronabonds could once again scupper any progress.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalised after showing persistent Coronavirus symptoms for the past ten days. Downing Street has said the move is a precautionary step. The rift between Saudi Arabia and Russia widens, delaying make-or-break talks on an oil output deal, with both sides blaming each other. President Trump has upped the ante on oil prices, threatening tariffs on crude imports in an attempt to safeguard U.S. producers from the sell-off. However, U.S. futures and Asian shares seem to shrug off the tension amid signs the pandemic is slowing. Virus cases in Italy, France and Spain decline but EU leaders call for a new marshall plan to mitigate the fallout from the Covid-19 outbreak. NBC News hears exclusively from Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on his country’s struggle against the disease.

Striking a deal…President Trump sparks the biggest crude oil rally on record, telling CNBC’s Joe Kernen that he has managed to negotiate a deal to get Saudi Arabia and Russia to make significant production cuts as producers demand an Opec+ meeting. U.S. weekly jobless claims reach a record 6.6m, worse than expected. In China, service sector jobs for March are slashed at their fastest rate ever as consumer activity rebounds from a record low despite remaining in contraction. European Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen has launched a €100bn short-term work scheme to aid those countries hardest hit by the economic fallout of the pandemic, which has now reached one million cases of Covid-19.

Hard times ahead…President Trump warns of a difficult few weeks to come as the U.S. death toll surges and up to 80 per cent of the country remains on lockdown. In energy news, oil bosses are set to meet with President Trump as Whiting Petroleum becomes the first oil major to file for bankruptcy. In the UK, British Airways will reportedly furlough up to 36,000 staff following talks with the airline union. Plus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promises to boost Coronavirus testing after admitting only a fraction of frontline NHS staff have so far been checked.  

March market misery as the Dow closes the month in the red. It posted its worst first quarter on record. The energy sector was the big underperformer, plunging nearly 35 per cent in March, while US tech giants are among the few stocks to eke out gains. The markets should brace for more dismal data, as Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester told CNBC. In Europe, major indices lost more than 20 per cent this month. Britain's major banks are now ditching their dividends after the U.K.'s financial regulator joins its European counterparts to call on lenders to preserve cash. This comes as the death toll in the U.K. marks its biggest daily rise, while President Trump warns the virus could claim as many as 240,000 U.S. lives.

Beating expectations…Chinese factories rebound in March according to official PMI data. In energy news, oil prices have rallied from 18-year lows after Russia and the U.S. agree to hold talks as Saudi Arabia boosts production. U.S. tech stocks lead a Wall Street surge on Monday with Microsoft seeing sharp increased demand for its cloud services. And in banking news, Credit Suisse has announced it may cut bonuses this year but will still maintain its dividend, going against decisions by other European lenders to halt payouts until October.

Longer lockdown? President Trump abandons his predictions that the U.S. will be open for business by Easter and extends restrictions until 30th April. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz says the ESM bailout fund remains the correct instrument for shoring up EU economies in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic. The UK is bracing for potentially tougher quarantine measures amid reports that the lockdown could stretch out until June. And in corporate news, Unicredit becomes the first Italian bank to suspend its dividend and share buyback scheme as the ECB advises lenders to halt payouts until October.  

The U.S. overtakes China and Italy reporting the world’s highest number of Covid-19 cases. New York is the epicentre and there are warnings the health system there is fraying. The dollar heads toward its largest decline in a decade but the Dow posts its best three-day rally in more than 90 years, after the US Senate passes the $2tn stimulus package. Federal Reserve president Jerome Powell tells NBC that the U.S. is already likely to be in recession but insists that the central bank has enough ammunition to weather the Coronavirus pandemic, as its balance sheet grows to $5tn. The G20 nations pledge to inject that same figure into the global economy in a rare united response to mitigate the fallout from the crisis. And finally, we speak to the CEO of pharma giant Novartis, who tells the programme he is seeing unprecedented collaboration between the world's biggest healthcare names. 

Stimulus Plans. The mammoth U.S. Coronavirus stimulus bill is passed as President Trump voices hope that large parts of the economy could be ready to reopen by Easter. The Dow posts a second day of gains for the first time since last month. Reports of a total lockdown this weekend in Tokyo causes the Nikkei to fall while Singapore’s GDP growth shrinks 2.2 per cent. In Europe, nine EU nations call for the creation of ‘Coronabonds’ to offset the economic damage caused by the outbreak. In the UK, the BoE and the Treasury look set to approve more measures to support the British economy.  

Done deal…the White House and U.S. Senate finally agree on a massive $2tn stimulus package to mitigate the medical and economic fallout of the Coronavirus outbreak. The rescue agreement – the largest in U.S. history – drives Asian stocks sharply higher, after the Dow stages a massive rebound in its best day since 1933. India launches the world’s biggest lockdown with Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordering its 1.3bn-strong population to stay indoors for 3 weeks to stem the spread of the virus. In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe finally succumbs to pressure and postpones the Olympic Games until next year while in the UK, thousands of retired NHS staff will return to work and a new emergency hospital will be constructed in London’s ExCeL arena in the wake of the largest daily jump in Covid-19 cases.  

Weeks, not months… President Trump promises to re-open the U.S. economy for business soon, however Congress blocks his stimulus package bill for a second time, weighing on Wall Street. Democratic and Republican senators once again disagreed over the contents of the legislation. But Asian stocks surge as the Fed promises to buy an unlimited number of government bonds. Oil prices also rally. Prime Minister Boris Johnson locks down Britain in order to stem the spread of Coronavirus, barring gatherings and all but the most essential trips out of home while Spain reels from the outbreak as the national death toll surpasses 2,000. In corporate news, German steel giant ThyssenKrupp decides to scrap its 2020 profit outlook while Spanish lender Santander adjusts its dividend policy for the year.  

Stocks stumble on a stimulus snag … U.S. futures drop, briefly hitting limit down, after major indices recorded their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. Part of President Trump’s $2tn stimulus package doesn’t win approval in the Senate with Democrats criticising the bill for helping large corporates over average workers in the face of the Coronavirus outbreak. Oil prices near a 17-year low in a volatile session. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel goes into quarantine and limits social gatherings to two people. Berlin is also set to approve a €500bn bailout fund, breaking its long-held ‘Black Zero’ debt policy. Italy has increased travel limitations to combat the spread of the virus after the death toll surged over the weekend. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has warned that the economic impact of the virus will be felt throughout the country. And in corporate news, Airbus has withdrawn its full-year guidance due to the economic volatility caused by the pandemic.

Coronavirus counter-measures...Pressure on stocks ease slightly as central banks take more action. The U.S. Federal Reserve extended its swap lines to another nine central banks in a bid to mitigate the effects of the Coronavirus outbreak. President Trump also says that the government could take stakes in troubled corporates – something not seen since the automotive industry was bailed out. Italy is now the centre of the pandemic with deaths surpassing those of China for the first time. The BoE has cut rates to a historic low of 0.1 per cent to boost sterling up from 35-year lows. Prime Minister Johnson, however, has not ruled out further rescue measures to shore up British business.

Extraordinary times…ECB President Christine Lagarde launches a €750bn rescue package to counter the Coronavirus pandemic while the BOJ sets out a ¥1tn JGB purchase plan. The stimulus, however, fails to lift market sentiment with Asian stocks falling while U.S. futures fail to hold on to brief gains after the Dow falls through the 20,000-point mark. In an exclusive interview with CNBC, legendary hedge fund investor, Bill Ackman, issues a stark warning about the outbreak and urges the U.S. government to shut the country down. In energy news, oil falls 20 per cent, putting it on track for its worst week in history but WTI is back up after hitting its lowest level in 18 years. And in the UK, London braces for imminent lockdown as Prime Minister Boris Johnson closes schools and the national Coronavirus death toll tops 100.

A short-lived rebound … the major U.S. averages rally by more than 5 per cent on the back of stimulus hopes but U.S. futures fall and Asian stocks turn lower. President Trump’s administration promises a massive $1tn rescue package in light of the global Coronavirus crisis, including tax breaks and cash handouts. A CNBC source learns that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned senators that U.S. unemployment could hit 20 per cent if his fiscal proposals are not enacted. In the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveils a £350bn fiscal programme to shore up businesses affected by the outbreak and says he won’t hesitate to increase this figure should demand increase. Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU shuts its external borders with the drastic lockdown set to last for a month at least.

The worst day since Black Monday…the Dow suffers a 3,000-point sell-off in its third-biggest loss ever, and the most dismal day since 1987. The market’s volatility gauge - the VIX - swings to a record high as President Trump warns the U.S. economy could fall into recession. The U.S. also says the outbreak could drag into August. U.S. airlines have said they will require a $50bn bailout which could be the largest rescue package since the terrorist attacks of 9/11. In auto news, VW posts solid full-year data for 2019 but says that guidance for 2020 has now become impossible. Airbus temporarily suspends work at its French and Spanish assembly plants in order to contain Coronavirus. And in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson ramps up restrictions and advises Britons against non-essential contact and travel.