Bloomberg Surveillance

Jerome Schneider, PIMCO Head of Short-Term Portfolio Management and Manager of the $14 Billion Cash Management Fund, PIMCO Mint, says we should expect volatility in repo rates. Keyu Jin, LSE Economics Professor, says there has been a divergence in business and consumer sentiment. Kallum Pickering, Berenberg Senior Economist, says the ECB does not have the firepower to start a recovery in Europe. And Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says it remains to be seen whether there is an appetite among Fed officials for a change in policy strategy. ------

Jens Nordvig, Exante Data Founder & CEO, says global growth is the most important variable for the dollar. David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist, says rising trade tensions hurt the rest of the world more than the U.S. Priya Misra, TD Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Strategy, expects the Fed to restart easing by mid-2020. And Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, says she could see further delays in trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Tom Keene and Jon Ferro broadcast a Surveillance Special on TV and Radio from the Westminster Green. Alan Wager, U.K. In a Changing Europe Researcher, says Boris Johnson now has to focus on uniting the U.K. after a landslide victory. Trevor Greetham, Royal London Asset Management Head of Multi-Asset, provides an outlook for sterling and gilts. Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg International Government Editor, predicts what Boris Johnson's new cabinet may look like. Ben Ritchie, Aberdeen Asset Management Senior Investment Manager, thinks U.K. bond yields have remained surprisingly low during the uncertainty of Brexit. And Maria Demertzis, Bruegel Deputy Director, thinks that the U.K. and the EU could reach a trade agreement in less than a year.

Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, is taking any increase in yield as a buying opportunity. Frederik Ducrozet, Pictet Wealth Management Strategist, says the first action the ECB has to take next year is to ease. Ted Alden, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, says he expects the U.S.-China trade deal to be delayed this week. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, says she sees signs of stabilization in euro zone. Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg News Head of Economics, reacts to the ECB press conference and President Trump's tweets on a nearing trade deal.

Roger Bootle, Capital Economics Founder & Chairman, says the U.K.'s Conservative Party has been inching toward the center of the political spectrum. Camilla Cavendish, Former Head of Policy for U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, says the Tories are aspiring to be the voice of the working class. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM Senior Fund Manager, says Chairman Powell has been very clear he does not see us at QE. Wendy J. Schiller, Brown University Chair of Political Science, discusses the history of impeachment in the House and Senate. And David Blanchflower, Author & Dartmouth Professor of Economics, says employment rates are still below where they were a decade ago.

Seema Shah, Principal Global Investors Chief Strategist, expects equities to rise next year, giving "vertigo" discomfort to investors. Jonathan Fenby, TS Lombard European Politics Managing Director & China Chairman, says the silence between the U.S. and China shows negotiations are very serious. Jean-Claude Trichet, Former President of the European Central Bank, says the positive effects of negative interest rates outweigh the negative. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says economic activity in the United States is still strong. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-In-Chief Emeritus, discusses his latest Bloomberg Opinion piece. And Emily Wilkins, Bloomberg Government Congressional Reporter, wraps the impeachment news of day.

Alberto Gallo, Algebris Investments Head of Macro Strategies, says many global positive-yielding bonds could be zombies. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, sees an uptick in inflation expectations for 2020. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs International Global Head of Commodities Research, says the U.S.-China trade war is exacerbating structural issues in the oil market, not causing them. And Constance Hunter, KPMG Chief Economist and NABE President, thinks the chances for a phase one trade deal are slim.

In this Surveillance Special, Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney remember the life and legacy of Paul Volcker, Former Chair of the Federal Reserve. We hear from Bloomberg's Bob Moon, Former SEC Chair Arthur Levitt, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, Grant Thornton's Diane Swonk and RDQ Economics' John Ryding.

Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives President and Founder, says Europe does not have an engine of growth. Jim Glassman, JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking Head Economist, and Michael Collins, PGIM Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Manager, react to the massive jobs report surprise. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, says the United States economy and job creation is accelerating. And Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the U.S. cannot permit unfair trading practices from our allies or non-allies.

Roger Diwan, IHS Markit Vice President of Financial Services, says it is not clear how much ability other OPEC countries will have to follow Saudi Arabia's oil supply cuts. Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, discusses the fundamental difference between climate change and climate risk for banking. Anat Admati, Stanford Finance Professor, says problems plaguing democracy and capitalism are rooted between corporations and governments. And Ted Alden, CFR Senior Fellow, says we have gone "far down" a unilateral trade road with this administration.

Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Equity & Quantitative Strategy, thinks cyclicals could see a strong rally on a skinny trade deal. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, says the vast majority of Americans still want to be in NATO. Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, thinks U.K.-EU trade talks could bring back a no-deal Brexit risk next year. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says he is concerned about Turkey’s direction and their willingness to partner so closely with Russia in Syria. And Brian Wieser, Group M Global President of Business Intelligence, discusses the changing nature of ad breaks.

Troy Gayeski, SkyBridge Capital Co-Chief Investment Officer, thinks the U.S. dollar has finally topped out. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy, believes the pressure on the administration not to impose tariffs is stronger than it has ever been. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Editor and Publisher, shares memories of his iconic newsletter ahead of its planned last edition on Dec. 31. Margie Patel, Wells Fargo Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager, thinks mid-single digit returns may be the best-case scenario for 2020.

Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, doesn't see an end to the industrial recession as long as inventories are rising. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, details research which suggests a niche area of apparel is growing double digits, despite weakness in the broad sector. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says consumers are showing signs of weakness just as businesses are finally showing signs of life. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Chief Investment Officer & Founder, expects millennials to double their use of gasoline in the next 10 years. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, previews what's in store in the next decade for Goldman Sachs.

John Authers, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says populist politicians have played their hands poorly in 2019. Joseph Abboud, Clothing Designer & Tailored Brands Creative Director, says Black Friday matters more for accessories and sportswear than custom suits. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO & Chief Research Officer, teases the item poised to become the “fashion must-have” of the 2019 holiday season! And Elaine Sciolino, Former NYT Correspondent & Author of “The Seine," details the famous river.

Greg Boutle, BNP Paribas U.S. Head of Equity and Derivative Strategy, expects U.S. manufacturing weakness to start broadening out to the rest of the economy. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, says the stock market gains are not experienced widely across the economy. David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO, says ECB's Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now. And Karen Ubelhart, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for Machinery, provides an industrial outlook for 2020.

Brian Levitt, Invesco Global Market Strategist, says we are returning to an environment of more stable growth. Stephen Sadove, Senior Adviser for Mastercard and former Saks CEO, thinks LVMH buying Tiffany & Co. is a win-win. Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, foresees one more rate cut in their forecast. Adm. James Stavridis, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander & Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discusses President Trump's recent decisions regarding the Navy SEALs. And Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Media Analyst, says Disney's performance this year has been phenomenal. ------

Chris Marangi, Gabelli Funds Co-CIO, says the market is pivoting towards value from momentum. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs International Global Head of Commodities Research, recommends getting long commodities today. Geoffrey Yu, UBS Private Banking CIO, says the dollar has topped out but it doesn't mean we're starting a dollar bear trend. Deborah Aitken, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst of Luxury Goods, sees the LVMH Tiffany tie-up as mutually beneficial for both companies, particularly when it comes to expanded market share in the luxury jewelry sector. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg TV & Radio Finance Reporter, says Charles Schwab aims to diversify their business in buying TD Ameritrade.

Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust Chief Economist, is optimistic equities will see a positive impact from a looming Phase One deal. Robert Hormats, Kissinger Associates Vice-Chair, says after visiting China, he thinks the Chinese are committed to a tariff deal but adds Beijing will not yield to White House demands simply because its economy is slowing. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities Managing Director of Equity Research, says Tesla's 'Cybertruck' may be dead on arrival when it hits the market in 2022. Margaret Brennan, Face the Nation Host, says many conversations surrounding President Trump's hearings don't seem to have been moved forward by this week's testimonies. Priya Misra, TD Securities Managing Director & Global Head of Rates Strategy, is worried that cracks in the consumer are beginning to appear.

Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, expects growth to remain stuck for the next two years due to trade uncertainty. Joe Quinlan, Head of CIO Market Strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, says Europe is looking "less bad" as global markets continue to bottom out. Lale Topcuoglu, JOHCM (USA) Inc. Senior Fund Manager, believes there is no such thing as cash on the sidelines. Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says yields are not that attractive to take on duration risks. And Max Baucus, Former U.S. Ambassador to China, says President Xi is clearly nationalistic.

Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, says there is value in international stocks. Bill Dudley, Former New York Fed President, says contrary to the recent Fed report, he thinks there are two significant economic risks on the horizon. Todd Mariano, Eurasia Group U.S. Director, believes there is a veto-proof majority in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy bill. Megan Greene, Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, says global growth will look better next year because emerging markets will be less squeezed. Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital Founding Managing Partner, says jobs numbers have been dented by the lack of government spending on infrastructure.